China would respond to any nuclear aggression with total “annihilation” of the attacking nation, according to Victor Gao, vice-president of the Beijing-based think tank, the Center for China and Globalisation. The warning follows a Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile test in the South Pacific, which prompted concerns from Australian officials regarding the reach of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal.
What does China’s recent missile test signify?
On Monday, a Chinese nuclear-capable ballistic missile was launched from a submarine and landed in the South Pacific. According to Chinese state media, the test was successful, with the projectile landing precisely within designated waters. Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles stated that the test serves as a “message” regarding the extended range of China’s military capabilities.
While the timing of the launch coincided with a new defense treaty between Australia and Fiji, Mr. Marles noted that the proximity of the two events could be coincidental. Instead, he emphasized that the core concern remains the demonstrated ability of the Chinese military to deploy nuclear-capable weapons over long distances.
How many nuclear warheads does China possess?
The exact size of China’s nuclear arsenal remains a subject of international debate. Victor Gao characterized the number of warheads as the “biggest strategic ambiguity in our times.” While China has not disclosed official figures, the U.S. Pentagon estimates that China possessed nuclear warheads in the low 600s as of 2024. Projections from the Pentagon suggest this number could jump to more than 1,000 by 2030.
China has declared that its nuclear policies include a pledge not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear weapon country, a position Mr. Gao cited as a reason for other nations to remain calm regarding Beijing’s testing activities.
Why is Australia concerned about the AUKUS pact?
The Australian government’s pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS agreement has drawn criticism from Beijing. Mr. Gao warned that Australia’s status as a nuclear-free country would end the moment it receives these vessels. He urged Australian policymakers to “stay away from being a nuclear power,” citing unpredictable consequences.
Comparative Outlook: Strategic Certainty vs. Regional Tensions
The rhetoric surrounding these developments highlights a divide in how the test is perceived:
- Beijing’s Perspective: According to Mr. Gao, the test was “very routine, very normal” and timed to mark the anniversary of the 1937 Japanese invasion of China. He argues that China’s possession of enough warheads to “annihilate” an aggressor provides “strategic certainty” that should encourage peace.
- Canberra’s Perspective: Defence Minister Richard Marles maintains that the test is a display of expanded military reach. He characterizes the development as “very concerning,” focusing on the technical implications of submarine-launched long-range missile capabilities.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has China revealed how many nuclear weapons it has?
No. According to Victor Gao, China does not disclose its exact warhead count, labeling it a strategic ambiguity.
What does the Pentagon say about China’s nuclear growth?
The Pentagon estimates China held nuclear warheads in the low 600s in 2024 and projects that the total will jump to more than 1,000 by 2030.
Why did China test a missile in the South Pacific?
Chinese state media described the test as a routine exercise. Mr. Gao noted that the timing coincided with the anniversary of the 1937 invasion of China by Japan.
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