COVID-19 cases are increasing across 48 U.S. states as the late summer surge drives widespread transmission, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data released through late August 2026. While overall viral activity remains low nationally, health officials report steady upward trends.
Summer is drawing to a close, and with it comes a familiar pattern of respiratory illness. According to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19 cases are ticking up in almost every U.S. state. COVID-19 activity was still categorized overall as “very lownationwide by the agency as of Aug. 28, though cases are consistently increasing. This is likely the result of what has come to be known as the
summer surge,” a pattern that doctors have observed each year since around 2022. Unlike other respiratory illnesses such as the flu, COVID-19 tends to flare not only during the typical winter cold and flu season, but also toward the end of summer.
Experts previously told USA TODAY that this is likely caused by multiple factors, including behavioral and environmental changes (the amount of time spent cooped up in AC, going back to school, etc.), as well as the virus’s life cycle and how our immunity to it waxes and wanes.
CDC Epidemic Modeling Shows Infections Growing in 48 States
Epidemic trend modeling from federal health officials indicates that transmission is moving upward across almost the entire country. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s latest epidemic modeling, COVID-19 infections are estimated to be growing in virtually every corner of the United States. As of August 12, the CDC estimates COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 50 states and the District of Columbia. Iowa is the lone exception, with insufficient data available for the agency to generate a trend estimate.
That snapshot marks a sharp contrast from earlier in the season. On July 22, the CDC estimated infections were growing or likely growing in 37 states, while 11 states were seeing little change in transmission. Those stable pockets have now disappeared from the map. The latest figures suggest the summer wave that emerged in parts of the South and West in July has expanded into a nationwide trend, with forty-seven states now classified as “Growing,while New Hampshire, Rhode Island and the District of Columbia are categorized as
Likely Growing.”
COVID-19 is rising nationally but from a low baseline,
Dr. Syra Madad, infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard’s Belfer Center and chief biopreparedness officer for New York City’s public hospitals, previously told USA TODAY.
Wastewater Monitoring Tracks High Viral Activity in the South
Because clinical testing no longer captures every mild or asymptomatic infection, health authorities rely heavily on wastewater tracking to monitor community spread. Wastewater data can give us a closer look at where the virus may be circulating most. Testing the sewage can pick up the presence of COVID-19 in a community and can pick up signs of infection even from people who feel perfectly healthy,
the CDC says.
Recent wastewater surveillance highlights regional disparities in viral load. The West and South are seeing higher levels of COVID activity than other regions. Two states show signs of elevated viral activity, as Hawaii and Mississippi are both listed as having “moderatelevels of COVID-19, though wastewater data for Mississippi is limited. Texas is currently reporting
very high” levels of COVID in wastewater, per CDC data.
Variant Drives Infections as Back-to-School Season Begins
The current wave is not unexpected, according to experts. The SARS-CoV-2 virus can spread year-round, but it has settled into a distinctive seasonal pattern. With school back in session, COVID cases are steadily increasing. The CDC says COVID-19 infections are likely rising in 48 states.
Experts say it’s normal during this time, stressing the importance of prevention as students head back to school. That proximity plays a huge part. COVID spreads very easily when people are in enclosed spaces, so we see children, college students, anyone who's sharing a workspace. Really, that threat could be elevated,
said Boone County Health Department’s Public Information Specialist Austin Krohn. Krohn said state numbers aren’t accessible at this time, but nationwide trends indicate COVID-19 cases are rising.
Brian Allen is a pediatric immunization and infectious disease specialist at MU Health Care. He noted that yearly trends indicate numbers can be much higher. This is probably underreported, but at least looking at this year's data, everything so far seems to be under 5%,
Allen said. While 5% doesn’t seem high, that surge is approaching the percentage of positive cases at COVID’s peak last winter. Allen said these numbers hardly differ from figures observed previously.
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