Very strong El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific and are tracking to become one of the strongest events on record, bringing risks of drought, severe winds, and agricultural pressure heading into summer, according to Earth Sciences New Zealand. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) has already exceeded 1997 levels for this time of year, undergoing the most rapid warming on record.
Record-Breaking Warming Rates in the Tropical Pacific
Earth Sciences New Zealand reported that very strong El Niño conditions are actively developing across the tropical Pacific. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) has surpassed values recorded during the 1997 event for the same period. The Pacific Ocean has experienced the most rapid warming on record, establishing an exceptional climate pattern as regions head toward the end of the year. Ligin Joseph, a PhD Candidate in Oceanography at the University of Southampton, notes that while El Niño shifts odds, local weather systems can still produce extremes in the opposite direction. Forecasters expect the event to strengthen further before its usual peak around December.
Agricultural Pressures and Grocery Price Warnings
Economists have warned that the developing El Niño could push up food prices, particularly for dairy and red meat, as dry conditions impact farm sectors. Earth Sciences New Zealand noted that parts of the North Island are starting the season with below-normal soil moisture and river flows. Regions including Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū, Wellington, and the central North Island lean warmer with rainfall likely to remain around or below normal, creating challenges for farms and water-reliant industries. Most of the country is expected to be warmer than usual through December, though temperatures may be more variable than usual with pronounced swings between cold and warm conditions.
Drought Conditions Restrict Panama Canal Shipping
Daily transits through the Panama Canal have been restricted to 32 ships a day due to low water levels in feeding lakes, down from normal capacities of 36 to 40 vessels. Meanwhile, India is experiencing its driest monsoon season since 2009 with rainfall about 15% lower than normal, and Sudan’s Darfur region faces its driest rainy season in 40 years.
National Preparedness and Government Warnings in the United Kingdom
In the United Kingdom, Environment Secretary Angela Eagle stated that the country is about to experience a severe El Niño leading to drier summers, wetter winters, and extreme storms. The UK government planned campaigns urging citizens to maintain emergency food supplies.
Impacts on New Zealand and the South Pacific
The event is expected to be a dominant driver of climate patterns for New Zealand, favoring more frequent westerly airflows and increased gustiness. While the west of the South Island is likely to see above-normal rainfall, the north and east of the North Island face reduced rainfall and more frequent dry spells. The phenomenon is also affecting weather patterns in some parts of Australia and South Pacific island nations, where dry areas are expanding. Experts are monitoring the Southern Ocean, which remains stormy and continues to produce cold fronts.
Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 El Niño
When is the current El Niño expected to peak?
Earth Sciences New Zealand forecasts that the event will peak in late spring or early summer, continuing its influence on weather patterns through October, November, and December.
How does this event compare to previous years?
The Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) has already exceeded 1997 values for this time of year, marking the most rapid warming sequence on record in the tropical Pacific.
Which regions face the highest risk of dry conditions?
The north and east of the North Island face reduced rainfall, more frequent dry spells, and soil drying, while international areas like India face severe dry monsoon conditions.
Are tropical cyclones expected to form near New Zealand?
The official tropical cyclone season begins on November 1. While the zone north of New Zealand currently has colder than average waters which can dampen formation, active monitoring remains in place for remote risks. Out-of-season cyclones between July and October are rare but more common during El Niño conditions; however, this risk does not currently factor into the Seasonal Climate Outlook. Temperatures across most of New Zealand are most likely to be above average, with a 45% chance.
Related reading