Indonesia is bracing for intensified dry conditions as a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean reduces rainfall across much of the archipelago. According to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), approximately 72.19 percent of the country is currently experiencing low rainfall, with nearly half of the nation’s territory officially entering the dry season.
Why dry conditions are expanding across Indonesia
The current climate shift is driven by a moderate El Niño, evidenced by a Niño 3.4 index that reached +1.24, according to the BMKG’s Rainfall Potential Outlook for July 7–13, 2026. This phenomenon, coupled with a Southern Indian Ocean Oscillation (SIOD) index of -23.3, has curtailed moisture across southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.
Official data indicates that 342 climatic zones—roughly 48.9 percent of the country—are in the dry season. The impact is particularly acute in 329 observation points where “Very Long Dry Days” have been recorded, meaning these areas have seen no significant rainfall for 31 to 60 consecutive days. Between July 1 and July 5, 2026, temperatures in provinces including Central Java, West Kalimantan, and North Sumatra topped 35 degrees Celsius.
How this compares to previous climate events
The 2026 El Niño is showing patterns that align with historical climate events, according to Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency’s (BRIN) Climate and Atmospheric Center. Yulihastin noted that the current subsurface heat propagation resembles the 1997 event, while the spatial structure of the climate system mirrors the 2015 El Niño.
The intensification is measurable: sea surface temperature anomalies rose from 1.1 degrees Celsius on June 21 to 1.25 degrees Celsius as of July 5, 2026. While the BMKG classifies the current state as moderate, Yulihastin observed that cooling in the lower ocean layers near Papua signals that the influence of El Niño is spreading more broadly across the Indonesian archipelago.
What could happen next
There is a possibility that the current moderate phase will intensify further. Yulihastin stated that many global climate models project the 2026 El Niño could develop into a “super El Niño.” Should this materialize, sea surface temperature anomalies could reach +2.0 degrees Celsius. As the dry season progresses, the combination of sustained high temperatures and reduced rainfall may continue to affect the regions already identified by the BMKG as experiencing water scarcity.
