New Zealand’s upcoming election campaign has entered a critical phase with only nine days left until election day, as major party leaders draw strict red lines and reject potential coalition partners. With recent polls showing both major parties struggling to reach the 30% mark, minor parties hold newfound power, leaving political leaders facing difficult choices on election night.
Did You Know? In a recent 1News Verian poll, The Opportunity Party stood at 6% support, positioning the minor party to potentially hold the balance of power as major parties face tightening voter numbers.
Why Coalition Deal-Breakers Matter for the Election
The narrowing list of acceptable partners could force political leaders to choose between their stated limits and securing enough seats to govern. National leader Christopher Luxon has ruled out Labour, the Green Party, Te Pāti Māori, and The Opportunity Party. Luxon initially crossed off Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori in January at National’s Christchurch caucus meeting, stating that Labour created economic troubles, the Greens hold a radical left-wing agenda, and Te Pāti Māori pursues a separatist agenda.
Opportunity joined National’s exclusion list in July due to its land tax and universal basic income policies. Despite polls indicating a right-wing path to power that would require Opportunity, Luxon has refused to budge on the exclusion. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong described the stance as old-fashioned tribalism, noting that Opportunity plans to approach whichever major party wins the most seats first.
Labour Leader Chris Hipkins Rules Out New Zealand First
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has returned the exclusion strategy by ruling out National, ACT, and New Zealand First. Campaign chair Kieran McAnulty confirmed in June that Labour would not work with ACT, while Hipkins definitively ruled out New Zealand First in August, citing overt racism from Winston Peters and Shane Jones. Peters responded on social media by attacking Hipkins and noting that New Zealand First had long ruled out working with Labour.
While Labour’s door remains open to the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, cooperation comes with distinct restrictions. Hipkins barred both parties from holding police or corrections portfolios following an incident where Te Pāti Māori and Green MPs posed for photographs with Mongrel Mob members at a South Auckland gang pad. Hipkins also stated that Barbara Edmonds will serve as finance minister in a Labour-led government, shutting down any prospect of Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick taking the role.
Minor Parties Shape Their Own Boundaries
ACT leader David Seymour has centered his campaign on keeping Labour out of power, explicitly ruling out Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori. Seymour has expressed openness to a four-headed coalition that might include Opportunity, though he questioned whether Opportunity will serve as kingmaker. Meanwhile, Opportunity has drawn its own red line against Winston Peters, with Wong declaring she will not support a government featuring Peters as foreign minister after derogatory remarks made in the House.
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has maintained that his party will only work with its current coalition partners, ruling out Labour, the Greens, Opportunity, and Te Pāti Māori. Te Pāti Māori has taken the opposite approach by refusing to rule out any party and structuring its party list to direct electorate and party votes toward the Greens or Labour.
Christopher Luxon Rejects The Opportunity Party over Tax Policies
Why did Christopher Luxon rule out The Opportunity Party?
National leader Christopher Luxon rejected The Opportunity Party in July due to its land tax and universal basic income policies, emphasizing that National operates as a low-tax party.
What conditions did Chris Hipkins place on potential coalition partners?
Labour leader Chris Hipkins barred the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori from holding police or corrections portfolios following a gang pad photo incident, and insisted that Barbara Edmonds will serve as finance minister.
Why did Qiulae Wong rule out working with Winston Peters?
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong established a bottom line against supporting any government with Winston Peters as foreign minister after he made offensive remarks toward Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan in the House.
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