Headline:
Elbil Revolution: Bransjespreder Nye Prosjekter, Venter 2025 Armsbeuelse
Subheading:
Bilbransjen tror på en prisdrevet vekst som vil løfte normalt salget til rundt 150.000 biler årlig frem mot 2030.
Article Body:
The automotive industry in Norway has high hopes for the future of electric vehicle (EV) adoption. According to industry organizations OFV and BIL, the percentage of new cars sold that are electric could reach 96% by 2025. However, the industry itself is not fully convinced that this ambitious target will be achieved in the foreseeable future.
Current State of EV Adoption
In 2024, EVs accounted for 88.9% of new car sales, according to figures from the Norwegian Public Roads Administration (OFV). While this is a significant number, it falls short of the 90% target set by the Norwegian government. OFV and BIL have developed an analysis model that predicts EV market share will rise to 96% in 2025 and 99.6% in 2030.
Projections for 2025
The industry expects a growth in new car registrations to approximately 135,152 in 2025, driven by a few more favorable first registration dates and a stronger first quarter than in 2024. Last year, 128,691 new passenger cars were registered.
"Our model suggests that there will be a first-time registration of 130,001 electric vehicles, 4,169 conventional cars (including Toyota hybrids), and 982 plug-in hybrids in 2025," said Laila Mikaelsen, head of sales and market at OFV.
Looking Ahead to 2030
OFV and BIL have used the same model to simulate the market’s development up to 2030. However, industry experts believe that the market may experience better results than their own projection model suggests.
While the model indicates that sales in urban areas will help mitigate the decline expected in areas with population decrease, the total number of cars sold is predicted to level out around 135,000 annually. This is close to the average of the past 25 years, with the industry experiencing an average of around 150,000 new car registrations per year from 2015.
"Our prediction is that we will see a price-driven volume increase, with lower prices boosting the normal sale to around 150,000," said Harald Jachwitz Andersen, director of BIL.
Sources:
Elbilsalget nådde ikke 90 prosent i 2024 (Motor.no)
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