The Invisible Threat: The Rise of Cislunar Space Junk
For decades, the conversation around space debris focused on Low Earth Orbit (LEO)—the crowded neighborhood where the International Space Station and thousands of satellites reside. Still, a recent prediction by astronomer Bill Gray suggests that the problem is expanding. A Falcon 9 upper stage, left in a highly elliptical orbit after a January 2025 mission, is now projected to crash into the Moon’s Einstein crater.
This event highlights a burgeoning trend: the accumulation of “cislunar” debris. As more commercial and government entities launch missions to the Moon, the space between Earth and its satellite is becoming a graveyard for spent rocket stages and discarded hardware. When these objects remain in erratic orbits, they develop into unpredictable projectiles.
The Falcon 9 upper stage in question is expected to strike the lunar surface at a hypersonic speed of 5,400 miles per hour
, or Mach 7. This isn’t an isolated incident. Gray previously identified China’s Chang’e-5 T1 upper stage, which impacted the Moon in March 2022. These unplanned impacts are the new “canaries in the coal mine” for lunar sustainability.
The Lunar Land Rush: Competition vs. Coordination
The race to the lunar south pole is no longer a two-player game between superpowers. With NASA’s Artemis program, SpaceX’s Starship, and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin all vying for lunar dominance, the volume of hardware entering cislunar space is increasing exponentially.
The current tension lies in the gap between ambition and execution. While the world awaits the graceful landing of the Starship lunar lander, the “workhorse” Falcon 9 may inadvertently beat it to the surface through a high-velocity crash. This disparity underscores a critical trend: the industry is prioritizing deployment speed over the long-term disposal of “leftover space hardware.”
As NASA looks toward the 2028 goal for lunar landings, the potential involvement of Blue Origin for Artemis IV suggests a diversified approach to hardware. However, without a unified international treaty on debris mitigation, the Moon risks becoming a celestial junkyard before a permanent human base is even established.
The Role of Independent Tracking
One of the most interesting shifts in modern astronomy is the reliance on independent trackers. Bill Gray’s Project Pluto software was able to chart the Falcon 9’s lopsided 26-day orbit—which ranges from 137,000 miles to 310,000 miles from Earth—using over 1,000 observations.
This indicates a future where “citizen science” and independent researchers provide essential oversight for corporate space ventures. When official mission controls may not have an impact on their bingo card
, independent astronomers act as the primary auditors of orbital safety.
The Ethics of Lunar Littering
The projected impact of the Falcon 9 upper stage has sparked a debate over carelessness
in space disposal. Unlike Earth, where debris eventually burns up in the atmosphere, objects in cislunar space can persist for millennia or crash into pristine lunar landscapes.
Future trends suggest a move toward “Active Debris Removal” (ADR). We are likely to see the development of “space tugs” designed to intercept spent stages and either push them into a graveyard orbit or steer them toward a controlled disposal. The scientific community notes that while a Mach 7 impact may offer minor scientific interest
by creating a small, imageable crater, the long-term cost is the degradation of the lunar environment.
As we transition from exploration to exploitation (mining for Helium-3 or water ice), the legal framework for “lunar littering” will likely become a major point of contention in international courts, mirroring the environmental protections we have established for Earth’s oceans.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Falcon 9 impact be visible from Earth?
No. According to astronomer Bill Gray, the impact will not be visible using ground-based telescopes, though the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter may be able to image the resulting crater.
What is the difference between a soft landing and this impact?
A soft landing uses propulsion to sluggish down for a gentle touch-down. This Falcon 9 upper stage is an uncontrolled descent, hitting the surface at Mach 7 (5,400 mph), which is a high-velocity collision.
Is this a danger to current lunar missions?
Gray states that this specific impact does not present an immediate danger to anyone, but it serves as a warning about the lack of rigorous disposal protocols for space hardware.
Why was the rocket stuck in orbit?
The 45-foot-tall upper stage was intended to return to Earth after deploying the Blue Ghost and Resilience landers in January 2025, but it became trapped in a highly elliptical orbit instead.
