Title: The Evolving Frontline: Russia ‘getting what it deserves,’ Ukraine says, after …”>Ukraine‘s Shift in Tactics in Annexed Crimea
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, the Crimean Peninsula has solidified its status as a frontline territory. While no active combat takes place here, air raid sirens, missile strikes, and explosions have become routine. In 2025, Ukraine’s strategy towards annexed Crimea will largely depend on Western support and the situation on the ground. President Vladimir Zelensky’s diplomatic efforts to reclaim the territory do not preclude attacks on Russian military installations, oil terminals, and transportation infrastructure.
A Shift in Targets
In the first two years of the full-scale war, the Ukrainian military focused its strikes mainly on ships of the Black Sea Fleet, Russian military targets clustered around seized Sevastopol and its environs, and the Crimean Bridge. However, in 2024, Ukraine’s approach shifted. Now, military and logistical facilities scattered across the peninsula are in the crosshairs.
"The tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have changed: they are more precise and effective," says Crimea-based political analyst Yevgeniya Gur inviténa. "Ukraine is targeting Russia‘s radar systems and air defense systems, which are expensive and hard to replace or move. They’re also employing increasingly sophisticated maritime attacks that have made Crimea a dangerous place for the Russian fleet."
Notable Strikes
Some of the most significant Ukrainian attacks on Crimean military targets in 2024 include:
- The February sinking of the Black Sea Fleet’s large amphibious assault ship, Сesar Kunikov, near Simeiz village.
- March attacks that damaged large amphibious assault ships Азов and Ямал in Sevastopol, and sank the corvette Сергей Котов near Kerch. Following these incidents, most remaining Russian ships fled to Novorossiysk.
- The August attack on the railway ferry Conro Trader, which sank along with fuel tankers it was transporting from Kuban to Crimea.
- The October strike on the oil terminal in Feodosia, reportedly serving the Russian occupation forces. The ensuing fire disabled the facility.
Throughout the year, Ukrainian forces systematically dismantled Russia’s air defense system in Crimea, eliminating anti-aircraft complexes in various regions.
Military and Political significance
These actions hold not only military but also political significance, according to analyst Pavel Likaychuk. "Ukraine has demonstrated a significant change in tactics on the Crimean front. This approach has not only undermined Russia’s operational capacity but also sent a clear message about Ukraine’s growing ability to reclaim occupied territories," he says.
Poltitical scientist Nikolay Volkovskiy agrees: "In 2024, Ukraine showed a notable shift in its tactics on the Crimean front. This approach not only undermined Russia’s operational capabilities but also sent a clear political message." However, such actions carry civilian costs—including lives lost and infrastructure damaged—due to the proximity of inhabited areas to targets.
Illusion of Normalcy
Despite the war, Russian authorities have persistently promoted Crimea as a tourist destination, even opening new attractions like the widely advertised "New Chersonesos" historical-archaeological park in Sevastopol. Yet, tourist numbers have been steadily declining since 2022.
In 2024, Russia held two illegitimate elections in Crimea: presidential polls in March and local representative elections in September. To hide low turnout, Moscow allowed early, mobile, and online voting. Despite these measures, experts note that Russia’s control over Crimea remains fragile.
Looking Ahead to 2025
As 2025 begins, experts predict continued Ukrainian military activity against Crimean targets, even as diplomatic efforts to reclaim the territory persist.
"Ukraine will likely continue to strike Russian military bases in Crimea, ultimately making it unattractive for Moscow’s use as a military hub. This could set the stage for diplomatic negotiations, the outcome of which will depend largely on Western support and developments within Russia," says Yevgeniya Gur invitésностиная.
While Ukraine’s ultimate goal remains the liberation of Crimea, the practicalities of achieving this will depend on Western aid, Russia’s internal situation, and the broader geopolitical landscape.
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