Title: Firsov: Ukraine‘s Strength, Not Trump‘s Goodwill, Key to Lasting Peace
Article:
The possibility of ending the war in Ukraine is increasingly being seen as a political process, especially with the upcoming inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. However, the question remains: will the U.S. have significant leverage over Ukraine and Russia to resolve this issue? Ukrainian combat medic and drone operator, Senior Sergeant Egor Firsov, argues in a Politico article that this is a rhetorical question, as the U.S. would have already intervened if it had the necessary influence.
Firsov warns against a one-sided ceasefire, stating that it would be a defeat, not peace. He believes that a Ukrainian loss would be perceived by Russia, China, and Iran as a defeat of the West, NATO, and the U.S. Given the substantial U.S. military aid provided to Ukraine, Trump starting his presidency with such a loss would be politically costly.
The senior sergeant suggests that Ukraine and Europe could lose a powerful ally against Russia if the U.S. stops funding. However, even without U.S. support, the war would not end. Instead, Ukraine would suffer more casualties and lose more territory, while Russia would become stronger and closer to NATO borders.
Firsov argues that the situation on the frontlines will dictate Russia’s willingness to negotiate. Therefore, the U.S. and Europe should be interested in bolstering Ukraine’s military resources. Western weapons and supplies are crucial for Ukraine’s defense and any constructive negotiations.
Firsov believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin expects decreasing Western support for Ukraine and the collapse of the Ukrainian front. He suggests that the only way to end the war is to create conditions that prevent the enemy from achieving success on Ukrainian soil. Drones, Firsov argues, are key to achieving this.
Currently, drones have significantly altered the war’s dynamics. They have pushed Russian heavy equipment back 5-10 kilometers from the contact line. However, the main challenge now is Russian infantry, which attacks in small groups at night or in poor weather conditions when drones are ineffective.
Firsov is confident that Ukrainian drone crews will find a solution to counter these tactics. If Ukraine had hundreds of drones, it could transform the positional war into a maneuver war, stabilize the frontline, and make any offensive actions impossible. This would make both sides interested in negotiations regardless of Trump’s or Putin’s positions.
However, Firsov cautions against a war freeze or ceasefire, as Russia would use the pause to prepare for further aggression. Therefore, he concludes that lasting peace cannot rely on Trump’s goodwill but on Ukraine’s strength, ensuring that the enemy does not dare to attack again.
