Democrats who won full control of state governments in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin during the November 2026 midterms have opened a viable path to bypass the Electoral College before the 2028 presidential election.
The compact activates only when member states account for at least 270 electoral votes, the majority required to win the presidency.
The 18 states currently in the compact represent 222 electoral votes. The five newly secured Democratic trifectas control a combined 61 electoral votes across Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6). If all five jurisdictions join, the total would reach 283, surpassing the 270-vote threshold required to trigger the agreement.
Governors and legislative leaders in the target states have signaled varying degrees of readiness to pursue the legislation during upcoming 2027 sessions. Wisconsin’s newly elected Democratic Gov. A spokesperson for Crowley’s transition team told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Nov. 10, 2026, that ensuring the person who receives the most votes in all 50 states becomes president is a “small piece of renewing our democracy.”
Axios; Democrats poised to break GOP's 16-year grip on statehouses Democrats are on track to take control of a majority of legislative chambers, ending 16 years of Republican dominance over America's statehouses. If current leads hold, 75% of Americans will live in a state with… pic.twitter.com/90Duv5KLaC
Pennsylvania Gov. “I think that the national popular vote makes sense. My views on that have not changed,” Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Gov, said. In Michigan, state representative Carrie Rheingans told the New York Times that “the time is right” for such a shift.
In Nevada, Governor-elect Aaron Ford expressed backing for the concept, noting that he believes the Electoral College has “racist underpinnings” and that the country needs to move toward a system where the popular vote winner secures the presidency. This comes after former Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak, also a Democrat, vetoed a similar bill in 2019, arguing it could diminish the role of smaller states in national contests.
Shapiro: I think the national popular vote makes sense… I'll work with lawmakers to figure out what the right mechanism is for moving forward on that. But look, we're the ultimate swing state in Pennsylvania… I think Pennsylvania can still play a massive role even in a… pic.twitter.com/1ZW2TPpSYw
Patrick Rosenstiel, a senior consultant for the National Popular Vote campaign, expressed confidence that the initiative would reach its threshold before the next presidential cycle. He rejected arguments that the compact improperly alters the Constitution, asserting that Article II, Section 1 grants states the exclusive power to determine how their electors are appointed.
Republicans and conservative leaders have pledged to fight the implementation of the compact. In Wisconsin, State Senate Minority Leader Julian Bradley described the NPVIC as a “radical leftwing wish-list item” and said that the state’s electoral votes belong exclusively to Wisconsin voters. Tyler August, the Republican leader in the Wisconsin Assembly, said that the Constitution provides states a voice in choosing the president for a specific reason.
Rick Esenberg, president of the conservative Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty, stated on social media that his attorneys would sue if state lawmakers enacted such legislation.
Legal scholars, including Notre Dame law professor Derek Muller, have argued that the compact could be unconstitutional without congressional approval under the Constitution’s Compact Clause. Muller told the New York Times that while it is a “very real possibility” that enough states join the compact, “there will be a lot of challenges.”
Proponents of the Electoral College, such as Nevada state senator Carrie Buck, argue that a national popular vote would disproportionately favor larger population centers and diminish the agenda of smaller states like Nevada. Despite these concerns, supporters point to a 2024 Pew Research Center survey indicating that 80% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans would prefer a system based on the popular vote.
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