Former Mossad Official Warns Turkey’s Military Threat to Israel

Erdogan’s Strategy of Creeping Annexation and Regional Expansion

According to Eilam, Turkish President Recep Erdogan is executing an organized, multiyear plan centered on territorial influence rather than nostalgic longing for the Ottoman era. Eilam described this approach as a policy of creeping annexation across multiple regions, pointing to Turkish activity in Libya, Somalia, other parts of Africa, and Gaza. Despite this expansive vision, Eilam told 103FM that Erdogan will not jeopardize his long-term gains by confronting Israel, which he characterized as one of the region’s greatest powers. Consequently, Eilam assessed the probability of a direct military clash as virtually zero.

Contrasting this view, Sagiv Asulin, a former senior Mossad official and researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, warned via X that Turkey functions as a rising power seeking to lead a Sunni axis alongside Qatar. Asulin argued that Turkey’s expanding military capabilities, combined with Qatari influence and information warfare, present a genuine strategic threat to Jerusalem. He urged sustained diplomatic pressure on Washington, noting that some American officials view Ankara as a trusted regional partner.

Boundaries Set by Israeli Strikes and Turkey’s Naval Strength

Eilam praised Israel’s recent military actions for establishing clear boundaries with Ankara. An Israeli strike in Syria successfully drew a definitive line in the sand against what Eilam termed a blatant violation of the status quo. The move blocked an attempt by Turkey to introduce an advanced military system capable of disrupting Israeli Air Force flight paths toward Iran. Describing Erdogan’s diplomatic style, Eilam remarked that the Turkish leader often dances a tango—two steps forward and one step back—while remaining acutely aware of Israeli military power.

Beyond naval strength, Eilam highlighted the significant leverage Erdogan maintains in his relations with Europe. Turkey controls a critical gateway for regional refugees, receiving annual payments ranging from $200 million to $250 million to host displaced populations and prevent mass migration waves into Europe. Eilam noted that European governments remain deeply concerned about this leverage, while the arrangement suits American strategic convenience.

Diplomatic Friction Over Washington Rhetoric

Concluding his interview with 103FM, Eilam offered pointed criticism regarding diplomatic messaging originating from the United States. He cautioned that Israeli officials must remain wary of inflammatory rhetoric from US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack. According to Eilam, claims made by Barrack regarding Turkish military aircraft movements dramatize routine situations, comparing the narrative to a Hollywood production rather than operational reality.

Frequently Asked Questions

• Is a war between Israel and Turkey likely?
  No. Former Mossad counterterrorism head Oded Eilam stated that the chances of a military confrontation are virtually zero because neither country is interested in armed conflict.
• What is Turkey’s broader regional strategy?
  According to Eilam, President Erdogan is pursuing an organized, multiyear plan involving creeping annexation across Libya, Somalia, Africa, and Gaza.
• How do security analysts view Turkey’s rising influence?
  While Eilam emphasizes Turkey’s restraint regarding direct conflict, former Mossad official Sagiv Asulin warns that Turkey’s growing military power and alignment with Qatar create a serious strategic threat for Israel.