Diesel prices in the Philippines are expected to drop by P1.80 to P2.00 per liter starting Tuesday, Oct. 13, while gasoline prices will likely increase by P2.00 to P2.20 per liter, according to local oil industry sources.
G7 Reserve Release Lowers Diesel Costs
The anticipated diesel rollback stems from the G7’s plan to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel reserves to stabilize skyrocketing prices. DOE director Rino Abad said that the market is focusing on this announcement, which includes a substantial release of diesel within 20 days.
This marks the second consecutive week of declines for diesel. For comparison, diesel prices fell by up to P1.30 per liter during the previous week, while gasoline prices climbed by up to P1.93 per liter.
Price Tracking Tip: Oil companies typically announce their specific price adjustments on Monday, with changes taking effect the following Tuesday.
Supply Tightness Drives Gasoline Prices Up
Gasoline prices are expected to remain elevated due to limited global supply and strong demand. Regional refinery shutdowns and a fuel export suspension by China have tightened available inventories.
Other external factors may increase volatility. An industry source noted that tanker attacks and escalation in the Middle East have heightened supply concerns. A hurricane approaching the Gulf of Mexico could force the shutdown of oil and gas production, potentially pushing prices higher in the coming days.
Market Adjustments for Oct. 13
The estimated price movements are based on the four-day Mean of Platts Singapore (Oct. 5 to 9), which serves as the pricing basis for refined goods in Southeast Asia, ABS-CBN reported. The estimated changes are as follows:
- Diesel: P1.80 to P2.00 per liter decrease
- Gasoline: P2.00 to P2.20 per liter increase
Did you know? The Mean of Platts Singapore is the pricing basis for refined goods in Southeast Asia.
Fuel Price Questions
Why is diesel dropping while gasoline rises?
Diesel is benefiting from the G7’s 100-million-barrel reserve release. Gasoline is facing a different set of pressures, including China’s export ban and refinery shutdowns, which have limited regional supply.
When will these price changes be official?
Oil companies will announce their exact price changes on Monday. According to ABS-CBN, these adjustments are expected to take effect on Tuesday, Oct. 13.
What other factors could change these estimates?
Continued tanker attacks in the Middle East and potential production halts in the Gulf of Mexico due to a hurricane could make prices more volatile before the Tuesday implementation.
The G7 may or may not implement the "additional diesel" releases mentioned in their talks if supply concerns persist.
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