Twenty-five commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the highest transit volume since mid-April, according to maritime tracking firm AXSMarine. The increase follows a US-Iran agreement to end hostilities, though the Pakistani navy issued a warning on Friday after sighting a sea mine in the strait near Oman.
Why has shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz suddenly increased?
The surge in maritime activity follows a deal between the United States and Iran to halt the war and allow safe passage for commercial ships. Data from AXSMarine shows that Thursday’s 25 vessel crossings are more than triple the daily average of approximately seven vessels recorded since early March.
On-the-ground activity suggests a rapid buildup of logistics. An eyewitness told AFP that empty trucks queued for up to three kilometers (two miles) outside the UAE port of Korfakkan, located just south of the strait. At least four container ships were observed unloading at the site, with other vessels visible on the horizon waiting to dock.
AXSMarine noted in a news release that the actual number of crossings might be higher than reported. Some ships may have turned off or manipulated their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponder signals to avoid detection while moving through the region.
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) reports that approximately 20,000 seafarers have been affected by the war in this region, with 11,000 currently stuck in the Gulf.
What new rules must commercial vessels follow?
To facilitate movement during the 60-day period covered by the war agreement, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority published new transit requirements. According to a post on X, all ships seeking to cross the Strait of Hormuz must submit a transit request at least 48 hours in advance.
To incentivize the resumption of trade, the authority is waiving specific costs. The agency stated it will waive payments for “tariffs” and “Iranian insurances” for ships passing through the waterway during this 60-day window.
What safety threats are still present in the waterway?
Despite the increase in traffic, maritime authorities have not declared the route entirely safe. The Pakistani navy published an alert on Friday warning that a sea mine had been sighted in the strait off the coast of Oman. The navy advised all transiting vessels to “navigate with extreme caution.”
The scale of the disruption remains significant. The IMO reports that more than 500 commercial vessels and 11,000 seafarers remain stuck in the Gulf due to ongoing safety concerns. While the International Maritime Organisation is working on a plan to ensure safe transit, the risk of renewed conflict persists.
The stability of the region is also tied to developments in Lebanon. While a US official stated that Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah had agreed to a ceasefire, the Israeli military announced new strikes in Lebanon on Friday.
How will this impact global energy prices?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz previously drove up global oil prices and restricted the shipment of essential commodities like fertilizer. The recent agreement has already begun to influence market trends.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at banking group Swissquote, told AFP that the first sign of relief following the June 14 agreement was “fast falling prices.” She noted that the energy and transport sectors will likely feel this economic relief before the effects spread to the broader economy.
However, Ozkardeskaya cautioned that questions remain regarding the long-term stability of the peace deal, citing the risk of renewed fighting in Lebanon as a primary variable.
Monitor AIS transponder data closely. As noted by AXSMarine, signal manipulation is a rising trend in high-risk zones, which can lead to inaccurate transit volume reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
Ships must provide 48 hours’ notice before transit. During a 60-day period, Iran is waiving tariffs and Iranian insurance fees.
The Pakistani navy has warned of sea mines near Oman, and the IMO reports that many vessels remain stuck due to safety concerns.
According to the IMO, more than 500 commercial vessels and 11,000 seafarers are currently stuck in the region.
Stay updated on global maritime shifts. Subscribe to our newsletter or leave a comment below with your thoughts on regional stability.
