Headline: Tight Laces: Johnson’s Speaker Bid Hangs in Balance as Congress Assembles
Subhead: Republican Expectations high, but unity is waning
With a thin majority – 219 to 215 – and not all Republican representatives guaranteed to back him, Speaker-designate Kevin McCarthy has spent the last few days in the Capitol building attempting to secure support from the most recalcitrant within his party.
More than his own job is on the line. President Donald Trump’s agenda, including tax cuts and mass deportation of immigrants, also hangs in the balance.
In the event McCarthy falters, certifying Trump’s presidential victory in November could become challenging, a process that has historically been little more than a formality. Trump supports the speaker, which usually rallies Republicans. However, even this is no guarantee.
Horse Trading
"What does he have to give to get the speaker’s position, and for how long is he then assured of support?" wonders Sarah Binder, a political scientist at George Washington University. While the Senate has already chosen its leaders, drama continues in the House. The speaker’s role is one of the most powerful in Washington, second only to the president in the line of succession.
The House has seen its share of drama lately. After Kevin McCarthy withdrew as speaker in late 2023, it took 15 votes for Johnson to emerge victorious. Now, even more is at stake – Trump’s agenda and the formal certification of the election results.
Constitutional Crisis Looms
The incoming president hasn’t helped McCarthy’s cause. A Louisiana Republican admitted at a New Year’s Eve gathering that Johnson "is the one who can win it now, but there are other good people too." In a TV interview Thursday night, McCarthy reiterated, "We must remain united."
McCarthy isn’t planning to ask Trump for help, but warns that without a House speaker, a constitutional crisis will ensue by Monday. That’s when Congress must count the electoral votes, the final hurdle before the January 20 inauguration.
McCarthy isn’t expecting any Democratic votes. He’s struggling to assure Republicans like Chip Roy and Thomas Massie, and others who have previously expressed dissatisfaction with his leadership. Unity, it seems, will be McCarthy’s biggest challenge.
