MLB Pitching Comebacks: What the Data Says About the Future
The 2025 MLB season has already seen a flurry of activity, with pitchers returning from injuries and working to regain their form. We’ve seen encouraging signs and some setbacks. Let’s dive into what the data reveals about these comeback stories and what it means for the future of pitching.
Rehabbing Arms: A New Normal?
The increasing prevalence of surgeries like Tommy John and other arm-related procedures has changed the landscape of professional baseball. It’s no longer a rarity, but a calculated risk. The question isn’t if a pitcher will return, but how effectively. Understanding the data and scouting reports is key.
For instance, Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) is showing a return to the mound. He’s working through command and velocity issues. According to his current statistics, he is showing a 3.93 FIP, with a 29% strikeout rate, and an 11% walk rate.
Pro Tip: Always check the latest pitch velocity data. Velocity is crucial, but command and pitch selection can sometimes offset a dip in speed.
Velocity vs. Movement: A Balancing Act
One of the biggest factors in a pitcher’s post-surgery performance is velocity. Losing a couple of miles per hour can be significant, but it’s not always a deal-breaker. Modern pitchers are learning to compensate with movement and strategic pitch usage. Spencer Strider (ATL) is a good case study of this.
Strider has added movement to his pitches. His four-seamer has gained about 2.5 inches of run, his slider has gained about 5 inches of depth, and his changeup has lost about 4 inches of fade and gained about 5 inches of depth. Command, and the strategic use of these pitches, are vital to the future success of his return.
Did you know? Pitch movement is now often measured with sophisticated tools like Hawk-Eye, providing unprecedented insights into a pitcher’s arsenal.
Command and Control: The Hidden Advantage
While velocity and movement get the headlines, command is critical. Even pitchers with elite stuff can struggle without it. Tony Gonsolin (LAD) is a prime example. After missing 2024 due to Tommy John surgery and a subsequent setback, he’s trying to rediscover the form that made him successful.
Gonsolin’s mechanics and ability to “tunnel” pitches are impacting his control and the ability to deceive hitters. This affects the overall effectiveness of his pitches.
Important Note: Command isn’t just about throwing strikes; it’s about hitting specific locations to exploit hitter weaknesses.
Adapting the Arsenal: New Strategies for Success
Injuries often force pitchers to re-evaluate their arsenals. Some pitchers may lean more heavily on their best pitch and adjust their strategy to exploit that strength, while others will incorporate new pitches. Success depends on both the arsenal, and the pitcher’s ability to adapt.
In 2022, Gonsolin leaned heavily on his slider against right-handed batters, throwing it 38% of the time. He’s decreased that number down to 28% while increasing the usage of his splitter and curveball. It is critical to consider the effectiveness of any given pitch, in addition to the location and command.
For more in-depth analysis, check out this article: MLB.com on Pitcher Recovery.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What’s a “FIP” and why is it important?
A: FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a statistic that isolates a pitcher’s performance from the influence of defense, offering a clearer picture of their effectiveness.
Q: How does pitch tunneling impact a pitcher’s success?
A: Pitch tunneling involves disguising pitches so they look identical to the hitter for as long as possible. This makes it harder for hitters to react, increasing the chance of a swing-and-miss or weak contact.
Q: Can a pitcher be successful without high velocity?
A: Yes! Pitchers can compensate for lower velocity with superior movement, command, and pitch selection. Think of it as a chess game: strategy trumps raw power sometimes.
Q: What’s the future of pitching?
A: The future will likely involve an increased emphasis on data-driven analysis, customized training programs, and a focus on long-term health and injury prevention. The ability to adapt and evolve will be crucial.
Want to discuss your favorite pitchers returning from injury? Leave your thoughts in the comments below! And don’t forget to explore our other articles for more insights into the world of baseball.
