Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have resulted in a cycle of retaliatory strikes, raising concerns about a prolonged conflict. While Iran’s missile arsenal poses no immediate threat to the United States, its capabilities are considered a tangible and ongoing threat to Israel. The current conflict, following the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, appears to be a battle for the survival of the Islamic Republic, according to Iranian officials.
Military and Economic Disadvantages
Iran appears to be at a military disadvantage, with its air defense systems having been significantly weakened by Israeli attacks in October 2024 and again in June. However, Israel also faces challenges, as its high-tech economy is vulnerable to disruptions caused by the conflict. An Israeli attack on Iran in June shuttered non-essential businesses, froze trade, and disrupted tourism for a month.
The conflict also highlights the economic realities of warfare. Israel must intercept missiles costing as little as twenty thousand dollars each with intercepting missiles that cost four million dollars and take longer to manufacture. Much of Iran’s missile-production infrastructure is located underground, making it difficult to destroy.
A Familiar Pattern
The war with Iran is mirroring past conflicts Israel has fought with Hamas between 2008 and 2021. As Ohad Hemo, a correspondent for Channel Twelve, noted on March 3rd, Iranian security forces are beginning to resemble those in the Gaza Strip, evacuating headquarters and seeking cover in religious institutions. This echoes Hamas’s tactics of firing rockets into Israeli border towns.
Prior to the current conflict, a diplomatic initiative to contain Iran was explored in March 2022, involving Israel, the United States, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Morocco. Discussions included the possibility of a “Middle Eastern NATO,” but this would have required engaging with the Palestine Authority and considering a pathway to a Palestinian state—a prospect opposed by Israel’s religious extremists.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the immediate threat posed by Iran’s missile program?
Iran’s conventional warheads pose no imminent threat to the U.S., but they are considered a tangible and ongoing threat to Israel.
What happened to Iran’s air defenses?
Iran’s air defense systems were decimated in October 2024 and again in June by Israeli attacks.
What was discussed at the 2022 summit regarding Iran?
Leaders explored the possibility of a “Middle Eastern NATO” to contain Iran, but this would have required engaging with the Palestine Authority and considering a pathway to a Palestinian state.
Given the current trajectory, will this conflict remain a cycle of reciprocal strikes, or will it escalate into a longer campaign impacting shipping and energy infrastructure?
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