Russia’s UkrainianAdvance: Progress Slower Than Planned, ISW Reports
In a recent analysis, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reassessed Russia’s military progress in Ukraine, highlighting that the Russian military prioritized capturing the remaining parts of the Donetsk region and establishing a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv region by the end of 2024. However, these objectives remained unmet.
according to the ISW report, Russia initially planned to seize the entire territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the end of 2024, based on estimates from Western and Ukrainian sources. Nevertheless, Russia’s slow advancement in the early and mid-2024 led the Russian military command to revise its plans, making the capture of Pokrovsk their main offensive goal by the year’s end.
Over the course of 2024, Russian forces managed to capture four medium-sized towns – Avdeyevka, Selidovo, Ugledar, and Kurakhovo, with the largest one, Avdeyevka, having a pre-war population of over 31,000. However, their momentum dampened in December.
The report suggests that, at the current pace, it would take Russia around two and a half years to seize the rest of Donetsk region. This estimation hinges on the assumptions that Russia’s offensives remain confined to Donetsk and that they can continue to capture urban territories as easily as they have smaller villages and open fields.
ISW emphasizes that Ukraine’s military would need to halt Russia’s advancement in its priority sectors to prevent such a scenario. Consequently, Western support remains a critical factor in Ukraine’s ability to stabilize its frontlines in 2025.
