)
Can João Almeida Still Win the Volta ao Algarve?
The task is complicated, even for João Almeida, who needs to make up 44 seconds on yellow jersey holder Juan Ayuso and 37 seconds on second-placed Paul Seixas, both of whom bested him in the two selective stages already contested – the one finishing on Alto da Fóia and the time trial.
A Demanding Climb
As Almeida acknowledged, the odds aren’t favorable. Though, he guarantees he won’t give up without a fight and will give his “maximum” to win the Algarve race. Despite this, it’s almost certain that even the best version of João Almeida won’t be able to gain that much time on the Spaniard and the Frenchman on the final climb, Alto do Malhão. While steep (averaging 9%), the climb is too short (2.6 km), making it explosive, which doesn’t suit Almeida’s strengths.
Team Strategy is Key
a potential strategy for UAE Emirates to harden the race from a distance – starting with the first passage through Malhão, about 50 kilometers from the finish – won’t be enough to cause fatigue to the rivals that would unbalance them when Almeida attacks on the second and final ascent. Both Ayuso and Seixas would have to be having a bad day, which would be an unlikely coincidence.
João Almeida will necessitate to use team strategy to win the Volta ao Algarve
A Potential Breakaway
A more effective strategy would be for Emirates to launch a rider in a breakaway who can resist ahead of the peloton, where the pace will be set by Lidl-Trek or Decathlon, who will want to bring the race to a mano-a-mano between Ayuso and Seixas at the finish, or even Ineos with Vauquelin and Onley – on the first passage of Malhão, where Almeida would launch his attack to join his teammate, who would tow him on the connecting, undulating terrain, to the final climb with an advantage over his rivals.
Leveraging Support Riders
This tactic is reminiscent of Visma’s strategy at the 2025 Giro d’Italia on the Col de Finestre, when Simon Yates joined the locomotive Wout van Aert after escaping Isaac del Toro and Richard Carapaz. The best elements for this function will be António Morgado and Brandon McNulty (the latter lost over a minute yesterday), both already with enough time lost in the general classification and benefiting from freedom granted by the teams of the leaders with ambitions for the yellow jersey.
It will be a difficult race for Almeida.
Worth a look