Roughly 40 per cent of Johor’s electorate are currently classified as fence-sitters, a voter bloc that political analysts identify as helping shape the outcome of the last state election and the 2022 general election. According to the independent pollster Merdeka Center, the state’s most decisive demographic consists of approximately 1.13 million voters aged between 21 and 39, who prioritize issues like underemployment and cost of living over traditional party loyalties.
The Influence of Youth and First-Time Voters
Younger voters have emerged as a particularly influential segment, having shaped the results of both the March 2022 state election and the November 2022 general election. Data from the Merdeka Center indicates that these voters, aged 21 to 39, represent a significant portion of the 2.7 million total voters in Johor. Furthermore, first-time voters—who account for 6.1 per cent of the electorate—are described as potential “kingmakers”.
During the March 2022 state election, voter turnout in Johor was around 50 per cent, one of the lowest recorded for Johor. Analysts attribute this largely to a lower turnout amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which favored the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition’s landslide victory of 40 out of 56 seats.
Shifting Voter Turnout and Political Loyalty
Voter behavior in Johor has shown high volatility depending on the election cycle. While the 2022 state polls saw low participation, the November 2022 general election saw turnout surge to an average of more than 70 per cent. This shift in participation levels led to the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition securing 14 out of 26 federal parliamentary seats in the state.
Francis Hutchinson, Principal Fellow and Coordinator of the Malaysia Studies Programme at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, notes that these younger voters “don’t have particular loyalty to any party”. Instead, they are driven by immediate economic concerns. Hutchinson also identifies two other distinct groups within the fence-sitter category:
- Disaffected UMNO supporters: Individuals who drifted from the United Malaysia National Organisation following the 1MDB corruption scandal.
- Disillusioned PH supporters: Traditional voters who have become increasingly disillusioned with the Madani government over its current term.
Hutchinson suggests that these groups may use the state election to send a message of discontent to PH leaders at the national level and warn them not to take their support for granted.
The Competitive Landscape: BN vs. PH
The governance of Johor remains a contest primarily between the BN and PH coalitions. Despite their cooperation within the federal unity government led by Anwar, the two coalitions remain rivals at the state level in Johor, with both parties contesting all 56 state seats.
While the focus remains on the two major coalitions, smaller parties are attempting to make a dent in the polls. This includes the relaunched Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) and the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA), as well as PN.
When tracking election trends, look specifically at turnout percentages among the 21–39 age demographic. Historical data from Johor suggests that when turnout in this bracket rises, traditional party strongholds often face significant pressure.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who are the “fence-sitters” in Johor politics?
Fence-sitters are voters who do not hold strong, permanent loyalties to any specific political party. In Johor, they account for approximately 40 per cent of the electorate, with a large concentration among voters aged 21 to 39.
Why are first-time voters considered “kingmakers”?
First-time voters make up 6.1 per cent of the Johor electorate. In a state where elections are often decided by narrow margins, this group has the potential to shift the balance of power between coalitions like BN and PH.
How does the federal unity government affect state-level voting?
While BN and PH serve as allies at the federal level, they remain rivals in Johor, competing for the same seats. Voters who are disillusioned with the federal administration may use state elections to signal their discontent to these parties.
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