Market participants are signaling skepticism toward reports that the U.S. government will take equity stakes in major artificial intelligence firms like OpenAI and Anthropic. While the Financial Times reported that OpenAI proposed a 5% government stake, traders on the prediction platform Kalshi currently place the probability of the U.S. government acquiring a stake in either company at less than 30%. This follows reports that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman initiated discussions regarding a government stake with the Trump administration in 2025.
Why are traders skeptical of an OpenAI government stake?
Despite headlines regarding a potential 5% equity grant, the financial markets remain unconvinced that such a deal will materialize. Data from Kalshi indicates that the likelihood of the federal government taking a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic this year remains below the 30% threshold. The event contract on the platform is set to resolve based on official filings, government verification, or confirmed reports from news outlets.
President Donald Trump has not confirmed the proposal. When asked by CNBC about the potential for a government stake in OpenAI, the President pointed to the administration’s precedent with Intel. “Intel came in. They had a problem,” the President stated. “I said, ‘I can solve your problem, but I want 10% of the company.'”
Did you know?
The U.S. government’s interest in private-sector equity is not limited to AI. In May, the U.S. Commerce Department said it would award $2 billion in grants to nine firms in the quantum computing space.
Where is the government more likely to take equity?
While AI firms face long odds, Kalshi traders suggest the government is significantly more likely to secure equity in the quantum computing and semiconductor sectors. Traders currently assign a probability of over 60% that the government will take a stake in companies including Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and GlobalFoundries.
This outlook aligns with recent federal funding initiatives. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) confirmed in May that it would acquire minority, non-controlling interests in the nine quantum companies receiving federal grants. Because these firms are already engaged in federal funding agreements, the path to government equity appears more concrete than the speculative proposals involving major AI developers.
Government interest in the drone sector
The administration is also exploring equity arrangements with private-sector drone manufacturers. A report from the Wall Street Journal in May indicated that officials were discussing potential deals with companies such as Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies. Market confidence in these specific deals is split, with Kalshi traders estimating a 50% likelihood for Performance Drone Works and less than 40% for Neros Technologies.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the government currently hold stakes in private AI companies?
As of June 2026, there is no verified report of the U.S. government holding an equity stake in OpenAI or Anthropic. While proposals have been discussed, market indicators suggest these deals remain speculative.
What happens if the government takes an equity stake?
If the government takes an equity stake, it typically acts as a minority shareholder. As seen in the Intel case, the government may require a 10% stake in exchange for federal support or assistance with operational challenges.
Which sectors are the most likely to see government equity?
Based on current federal grant programs and market sentiment, quantum computing and semiconductor firms, such as Rigetti Computing and GlobalFoundries, have a higher probability of government equity involvement compared to large-scale AI developers.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi maintain a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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