Title: The Rise of Javier Milei: A New Political Dynasty in Argentina?
Javier Milei’s abrupt emergence onto the Argentine political scene and his rapid march towards power have sown seeds of uncertainty in the public sphere. Next year’s elections promise to clarify some of these, among them whether the far right, embodied by La Libertad Avanza, will capture the entire available electorate, as happened in Brazil, or if there will be space for a less radicalized variant, represented by Pro, to survive with relative autonomy, as in Spain.
Though imperfect, these comparisons help sketch the duel between Milei and the Macri family. The main battleground for this duel is the city of Buenos Aires. Jorge Macri, the Chief of Government, perceives the threat posed by Milei’s party capturing key national candidacies, including two senatorial seats, and potentially expanding their presence in the local legislature, challenging the governability of the district. Macri’s response is to divide the elections, separating the discussion of local offices from the national candidacies, where La Libertad Avanza holds more power.
Macri’s strategy has its weaknesses. He plans to hold the vote in July, but by that time, national alliances and candidate lists will have already been designated. This creates a factual disconnection between the two elections but not a political one, as national candidates will still intervene in the city’s election. To avoid this superposition, Macri should have announced his call last October.
Meanwhile, Macri faces a major challenge: he must prove that his management deserves to be showcased in an election decoupled from the national debate. This task is made even more difficult by the recent crisis in one of the most electorally sensitive areas: public security.
A new jailbreak, involving 17 detainees escaping from a Buenos Aires alcaidía through a remarkably easy-to-open hole in a wall, has forced Macri to dismiss the top brass of the Metropolitan Police. The escape was discovered 40 minutes after it occurred, and a patrol was sent to search for the detainees. Macri and his Minister of Security, Waldo Wolf, have blamed the Metropolitan Police’s chief and deputy chief, among others.
The crisis surrounding the escape is exacerbated by the announcement of an investigation into the entire police force by the city’s General Prosecutor, Juan Bautista Mahiques. This move has further irritated police officers, who feel they are being blamed for the failures of a system designed to fail. The issue of overcrowded prisons, with each officer responsible for far too many detainees, and the inadequate infrastructure of the alcaidías, only serves to underscore this point.
The government’s attempts to mitigate the "carceral crisis" by agreeing with the national government to housing federal prisons in the city have not been successful. Patricia Bullrich, the Minister of Security, admitted that national magistrates’ decisions often result in inmates operating in the city being housed in federal prisons. However, the national ministry has set cup quotas for different categories of detainees, which, if not met, reduces the overall total. Rumors attribute these mezquindades of the Security Ministry to internal disputes between Bullrich and the Macris, but they are likely unfounded, given Bullrich’s own ambitions for the 2027 election.
Macri’s troubles with security are compounded by the fact that he lost his viceminister, Diego Kravetz, to Milei just a day after the jailbreak. Replacing him with Ezequiel Daglio, Wolf’s office remained without a number two for an entire day. Meanwhile, Wolf’s propensity for intelligence games and his close ties with figures like Antonio "Jaime" Stiuso and Lucas Nejamkis have raised questions about the efficiency and legality of the intelligence operations conducted under his watch.
The controversy surrounding the detention of Russian diplomats by Buenos Aires traffic agents further complicates Macri’s situation. The deputy marcela Pagano, partner of lawyer Franco Bindi, has filed a complaint against the agents, supporting the Russian embassy’s contention that the traffic control violated the Vienna Convention.
As the security issues mount, rumors circulate that Macri may seek a renewal in the area’s management, potentially sending Wolf to cover an electoral list. This would be a paradox, as the divided elections would serve not to showcase the government’s achievements, but to hide its shortcomings.
The mismanagement and blunders in Buenos Aires’ security administration are symptomatic of a broader deterioration in national security that has persisted for many years. The case of the murder of Nora Dalmasso in Rio Cuarto 18 years agoreras illustrates this point. The failure of the justice system in this case is not only due to evidence being overlooked but also to political interference that directed the investigation away from Roberto Bárzola, the prime suspect.
The upcoming elections promise to shed light on the future of Argentine politics, as the contest between Milei and the Macris plays out. However, as Buenos Aires grapples with security crises and political infighting, it remains to be seen whether the city, and the country, will choose a path towards progress or regression. The fate of these elections may well determine the answer.
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