The reported capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the United States has triggered geopolitical repercussions and increased uncertainty in the oil sector, with China closely monitoring the situation.
Geopolitical Shift and Oil Interests
U.S. President Donald Trump stated, “Estamos en el negocio del petróleo. Vamos a vendérselo. No vamos a decir que no vamos a dárselo. (…) Venderemos grandes cantidades de petróleo a otros países, muchos de los cuales ya lo están usando,” when directly questioned about China’s interest in Venezuelan oil.
Official Chinese customs data shows direct purchases of $729 million in 2024 and $94 million between January and November of 2025. However, S&P notes that most imports are routed through intermediary countries like Malaysia or Cuba to conceal their origin, leading the firm to still identify China as the primary global buyer of Venezuelan crude.
China’s Role and Market Impact
Despite this, Lin Boqiang, head of the Institute of Energy Policy at Xiamen University, clarified that “el petróleo venezolano supone menos de un 5 % del total de importaciones de China.” According to S&P, the crude oil is largely processed by independent refineries in Shandong province for applications like asphalt production.
China has reportedly been increasing its strategic oil reserves, a move that could help mitigate the impact of uncertainties like the current situation. Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, believes that these events are “not likely to alter global oil markets materially, or consequently, global economic forecasts.”
Potential Future Scenarios
Shearing suggests a geopolitical reading, noting that Venezuela had become China’s most loyal ally in Latin America, a position that caused discomfort in Washington. A government aligned with the U.S. could mean another key producer of raw materials moves away from China and closer to the U.S., mirroring recent developments with Saudi Arabia.
Peking provided Caracas with over $60 billion in loans backed by oil until 2015, with Forbes estimating up to $19 billion in outstanding returns now facing uncertainty. The Chinese state-run Global Times anticipates a “minimal” short-term impact but warns that increased U.S. influence over Venezuela’s reserves could lead to “manipulation” of global prices.
Bonnie Glaser, vice president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, predicts that Beijing will condemn U.S. actions but is unlikely to take further steps, stating, “Venezuela is not among China’s priority interests, and there are many more disadvantages than advantages in taking actions that would complicate Trump’s ability to score a victory.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current state of China’s direct purchases of Venezuelan oil?
Official Chinese customs data shows direct purchases of $729 million in 2024 and $94 million between January and November of 2025.
What percentage of China’s total imports does Venezuelan oil represent?
According to Lin Boqiang, Venezuelan oil represents less than 5% of China’s total imports.
What does Capital Economics predict regarding the impact of these events on global oil markets?
Neil Shearing of Capital Economics does not believe the events will materially alter global oil markets or economic forecasts.
How might a change in Venezuela’s government affect the balance of power between the U.S. and China?
