A significant sum of money has been wagered on the upcoming Dublin Central by-election, as prediction markets draw attention to the race to fill the seat vacated by former finance minister Paschal Donohoe. Polymarket reports that $1.1 million (€930,000) has been bet on the contest, which the platform suggests reflects strong engagement and ensures odds are informed by a deep pool of participants.
Market Trends and Candidate Odds
The by-election, scheduled for May 22, follows the departure of Paschal Donohoe from Irish politics in November to join the World Bank. According to Polymarket, Social Democrat councillor Daniel Ennis is currently the favorite, listed with a 76% chance of winning.
Investment in the market has been heavily concentrated. Nearly half of the total funds bet have been placed on Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch, who narrowly missed out on the fourth seat in the Dublin Central constituency during the 2024 general election.
The market has also seen unusual activity, including $180,000 wagered on campaigner Gillian Sheratt. However, Sheratt is not a candidate in the election, having been defeated by councillor Janice Boylan at the Sinn Féin selection convention.
Regulatory Landscape and Controversy
Prediction markets, which allow users to bet on a wide variety of outcomes, have faced recent controversy regarding wagers placed on the US-Iran ceasefire and the war in Ukraine.
The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) has stated that there are currently no specific laws governing gambling on politics. However, a phased rollout of new licensing for prediction markets based outside of Ireland is underway.
The GRAI began processing applications for in-person, remote betting, and remote betting intermediary licenses on February 9, 2026. The first of these licenses are expected to be issued by July 2026.
Potential Outlook
As the May 22 election approaches, the volatility of these bets may fluctuate based on campaign developments. The issuance of new licenses by July 2026 could potentially change how non-domestic prediction markets operate within the Irish jurisdiction.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is currently the favorite to win the Dublin Central by-election?
Social Democrat councillor Daniel Ennis is the favorite, with a 76% chance of winning according to Polymarket.
Why is the by-election taking place?
The election is being held to fill the seat vacated by former Fine Gael TD and finance minister Paschal Donohoe, who left politics in November to work at the World Bank.
Are there laws against betting on politics in Ireland?
The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) has stated that there are no specific laws around gambling on politics.
Do you believe prediction markets provide an accurate reflection of political sentiment?
