As fantasy basketball draft season opens amid a turbulent offseason of player movement, managers must balance Yahoo average draft position (ADP) data against projected nine-category league value. While some big names are currently overvalued, several undervalued players offer potential bargains in later rounds.
The gap between perceived and actual value is evident in players like Paolo Banchero. Despite an ADP of 34, Banchero may struggle to justify that position in category leagues due to career averages of 44.9% shooting from the field and 74.3% from the free-throw line, alongside a tendency to average at least 3.0 turnovers per game over the last three seasons. The Orlando Magic made moves around the edges this offseason, meaning his role should remain the same, but he provides little defensively with career averages of 0.6 blocks and 0.8 steals per night.
Targets for Later Draft Rounds
Several players are positioned as high-upside targets based on their current ADP and projected roles:
- Josh Hart (New York Knicks): With an ADP of 96, Hart is a potential value after averaging 12.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.6 3-pointers in 52 starts last season. He shot 51.5% from the field during those starts. He is expected to start for a Knicks team that returns most of its championship roster, though Andre Drummond has replaced Mitchell Robinson.
- Jaden McDaniels (Minnesota Timberwolves): Holding an ADP of 89, McDaniels averaged 14.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.4 3-pointers last year. He shot 51.5% from the field and 41.2% from three-point range.
- He averaged 8.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.3 3-pointers in 27 minutes per game last season.
Mitchell Robinson Joins Celtics Rotation
Roster changes have created new paths to playing time for big men.
Meanwhile, Mitchell Robinson has joined the Celtics, where he averaged 2.1 blocks and 16.1 rebounds per 36 minutes last season. His fantasy impact depends on whether he consistently secures 20-25 minutes within the main rotation.
Overvalued Veterans
Beyond Banchero, other established stars are identified as “busts” to fade. LeBron James has moved to the Philadelphia 76ers, while Joel Embiid has seen a decline in defensive production, posting 1.2 blocks per game compared to three previous seasons where he averaged at least 1.5. Embiid also averaged a career-low 7.7 rebounds despite playing 32 minutes per game.