A new YouGov poll released on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, projects significant shifts in the Welsh political landscape ahead of the Senedd election on May 7. Plaid Cymru is currently projected to be the largest party in the Senedd, potentially winning 43 of the 96 seats. The poll also indicates that First Minister Eluned Morgan is projected to lose her seat.
Reform UK is forecast to gain substantial ground, potentially securing 30 seats – a significant increase from its current two. The Green Party is projected to win ten seats, garnering 12% of the vote. Conversely, the Conservatives, having been “totally wiped out” in the 2024 general election in Wales, are on track to win only one seat, with Darren Millar as their sole representative. The Liberal Democrats are also facing a difficult election, with the poll suggesting they will fail to re-elect their current MS, Jane Dodds, receiving only 5% of the vote.
According to the poll, support for each party currently stands as follows: Plaid Cymru at 33%, Reform UK at 27%, Labour at 13%, the Greens at 12%, the Conservatives at 7%, and the Liberal Democrats at 5%. Cardiff University analysis suggests this translates to 43 seats for Plaid Cymru, 30 for Reform, 13 for Welsh Labour, 10 for the Green Party, one for the Conservatives, and none for the Liberal Democrats.
Dr. Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre noted that the race for the largest party has narrowed between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, but the contest to form the next government remains firmly between these two parties. Labour’s position has seen a marginal improvement since January, coinciding with improving evaluations of the UK government’s performance and a slight recovery in ratings for Keir Starmer.
Despite a decrease in vote share to 33%, Plaid Cymru remains on course to be the largest party, potentially winning 43 seats, leaving Rhun ap Iorwerth six seats short of an overall majority. An increase in support for Labour puts them in third place with 13%, resulting in 12 seats. In other words Eluned Morgan’s party would not be elected in four constituencies, including Ceredigion Penfro, where she is standing.
A Welsh Labour source stated that while the polls may not reflect what they are hearing “on the doorstep,” their message of investing £4 billion in new hospitals, tackling the cost of living, and supporting families is resonating with voters.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current projection for Plaid Cymru’s performance in the Senedd election?
The current projection indicates Plaid Cymru is on track to be the largest party in the Senedd, potentially winning 43 of the 96 seats.
How is Reform UK projected to perform in the upcoming election?
Reform UK is projected to take 30 seats, a significant increase from the two it currently holds, with 27% of those polled indicating they would vote for the party.
What is the projected outcome for the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties?
The Conservatives are on track to win only one seat, while the Liberal Democrats are projected to win no seats.
As the election approaches, will these poll numbers hold steady, or will we see further shifts in voter sentiment?