Putin Shifts Russian Advancement Strategy in Ukraine, Focusing on Terrain Instead of Towns
In a notable shift in strategy, Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly characterizing the progress of Russian troops in terms of square kilometers rather than the capture of specific towns, as previously reported. This change has been observed in a recent report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The shift suggests that Putin may have ordered the Russian military to postpone the capture of Pokrovsk in favor of further advancements through open fields and smaller settlements. Geolocational imagery analyzed by ISW indicates that Russian forces are now within 10 kilometers of the administrative border between the Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk regions.
The report notes that capturing the remainder of the Donetsk region has long been one of Putin’s key objectives in Ukraine. By emphasizing the Russian troops’ advance towards the border, Putin aims to project Russian military success both domestically and internationally.
ISW analysts also believe that a direct assault on well-defended cities could slow down the Russian advance at a critical juncture, potentially undermining the Kremlin’s efforts to portray Russian military victory as inevitable on the global stage.
Russian Advancements Near Pokrovsk
Geolocational maps indicate that Russian forces have recently made gains to the south and east of Novovasylivka, southwest of Pokrovsk. A Russian military blogger reported that Russian troops have advanced north from Novovasylivka towards Solone and Volchye, pushing towards Kotlino.
Another Kremlin-linked Russian blogger claimed that Russian forces have concentrated their attacks on Novotroyitske (east of Novovasylivka) and Dachne (south of Pokrovsk), forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat to the Lisivka-Peschanoye line (south-southeast of Pokrovsk).
The blogger also reported that Russian forces are advancing from Pustynka and Pushkino (both south of Pokrovsk) towards Ukrainka (southwest of Pushkino).
Decline in Russian Military Capabilities
ISW analysts do not rule out the possibility that the pace of Russian advancements towards Pokrovsk may slow due to declining military capabilities. Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mamshakov suggested that units of the Russian 90th Tank Division have suffered significant personnel losses and are attempting to push south from Pokrovsk and north from Kurakhove due to reduced combat effectiveness.
The 90th Tank Division participated in the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024 and has since been deployed along different sectors of the Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions. Recently, an officer from a Ukrainian brigade estimated that Russian forces had lost nearly 3,000 personnel on the Pokrovsk direction over two weeks in mid-December 2024. The 90th Tank Division is believed to have suffered significant personnel losses on the Pokrovsk direction and other sectors where it has previously operated.
ISW has observed geolocational footage of Russian forces conducting motorized attacks using civilian vehicles east of Ukrainka, within the area of responsibility of the 90th Tank Division. This suggests that the division is also struggling to replace combat vehicles it has lost on the frontline.
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