Confidence in the United States as a reliable security guarantor has dropped to a historic low among European nations, according to a recent survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Only 11% of respondents across 15 European countries currently view the U.S. as a genuine ally, a sharp decline from 22% in late 2024. As distrust grows, European public sentiment is shifting toward regional self-reliance and increased domestic defense spending ahead of critical G7 and NATO summits.
Why is European trust in the U.S. at an all-time low?
The decline in confidence stems from a combination of policy shifts in Washington and a growing desire for European strategic autonomy. According to the ECFR report, U.S. actions—including threats to withdraw troops from European bases, skepticism regarding the future of NATO, and aggressive stances in the Middle East—have fueled European pragmatism. Jana Kobzová, a senior policy fellow at the ECFR, notes that there is broad support across the continent for reducing dependence on Washington. While many Europeans anticipate that relations might stabilize after Donald Trump leaves office, the current trend reflects a fundamental questioning of long-term U.S. reliability.
While trust in the U.S. has plummeted, trust in European neighbors has risen. Majorities in nearly every country surveyed—with the exception of Bulgaria—expressed confidence that neighboring European nations would provide military aid in the event of an attack.
How are European nations planning to bolster defense?
Public support for increased national defense spending has risen by an average of 4% compared to the previous year, per ECFR data. This shift is accompanied by a strong preference for “buying European” when it comes to military hardware. In Denmark, 75% of respondents favor domestic procurement, with similarly high numbers in the Netherlands (72%) and Sweden (70%). Despite this, there is significant resistance to funding these initiatives through cuts to domestic public spending, with opposition peaking in Italy at 63% and Austria at 59%.
Will the European Union replace NATO?
There is currently little appetite for replacing NATO with an EU-only defense body. According to the ECFR findings, only 29% of respondents support such a move. Instead, the prevailing sentiment is a “wait-and-see” approach; 60% or more of citizens in countries like France, Spain, and the Netherlands believe that U.S.-European relations will improve once the current U.S. administration changes. Paweł Zerka, a co-author of the study, suggests this creates a unique window for European leaders to accelerate security integration without abandoning the existing transatlantic framework.
Comparison: Support for Collective Defense Funding
| Country | Support for Collective EU Borrowing |
|---|---|
| Portugal | 59% |
| Denmark | 56% |
| Netherlands | 55% |
When analyzing geopolitical shifts, monitor defense procurement contracts. The current European trend toward “buying European” hardware is a leading indicator of long-term industrial policy, regardless of short-term diplomatic fluctuations.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Do Europeans still want the U.S. as a partner? Yes, the prevailing view characterizes the U.S. as a “necessary partner,” even as trust in its security guarantee declines.
- Is Ukraine’s EU membership supported by all Europeans? No. Opinion is divided; countries like Hungary, Bulgaria, and even Estonia show more opposition than support for admitting Ukraine in the current context.
- Is there public support for resuming Russian energy imports? Despite high energy costs, 44% of Europeans believe it would be a bad idea to resume oil and gas imports from Russia, according to the ECFR survey.
What are your thoughts on the future of European security? Should the continent prioritize military self-reliance over the traditional NATO alliance? Share your perspective in the comments below or subscribe to our weekly newsletter for more deep dives into global policy.
