The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies kept their oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday, according to a statement from OPEC+. The decision leaves production levels flat after the alliance completed a months-long rollback of voluntary cuts, capping the process with a final September increase, as reported by Crypto Briefing.
OPEC+ Holds October Oil Output Steady Following Rollback Completion
The September adjustment involved a final 188,000-barrel-per-day increase, which finished the phased return of 1.65 million barrels per day originally agreed upon by participating countries in April 2023. With that rollback finished, the seven core members managing the monthly output decisions—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—paused further increases to let the market digest the additional supply. Brent crude was recently trading around $95.85 per barrel, according to Econotimes.
Wartime Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz Limit Alliance Control
The decision to maintain current output policy comes as the ongoing war involving Iran severely disrupts crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from the International Energy Agency cited by International Business Times, the waterway normally handles about 20 million barrels of crude and petroleum products each day, which equates to roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade. In 2025, about 15 million barrels per day of crude alone passed through the strait, with China and India together receiving 44% of those exports.
Because wartime shipping constraints have forced flows through the vital waterway down to near-standstill levels, actual production levels have consistently lagged behind targeted quotas. Consequently, the alliance is producing far below its targets, meaning shipping constraints are currently exerting a greater influence on physical crude supply than coordinated supply adjustments by OPEC+.
Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy noted that the group currently has very limited power over the physical oil market, stating that the group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market,
according to Investing.com.
Focus Shifts Toward 2027 Production Quotas and Capacity Reviews
With the October output policy held steady and no policy changes announced beyond October, the focus has shifted toward setting output baselines and quotas for 2027. A separate, broader set of OPEC+ production cuts totaling roughly 2 million barrels per day, first introduced in 2022, remains firmly in place through December 31, 2026.
Before the 21-member alliance can decide whether to unwind, extend, or replace those remaining cuts, members must complete a production capacity review by the end of September. This review will establish new output baselines that determine how individual production quotas are distributed among participating countries.
* Quota Framework Decisions: Capacity reviews and preliminary quota discussions will feed into fourth-quarter negotiations. * Member Dynamics: Countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan have historically pushed for higher baselines to match growing capacity, while Saudi Arabia and Russia favor discipline to support prices. * Next Meeting: The seven core OPEC+ members are scheduled to hold their next meeting on October 4.
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