Rentegikkler: Boligprisene vil stige ytterligere i 2025
While the official figures for December’s boligprisutvikling are yet to be announced, market experts have already begun projecting their expectations for the housing market in 2025. According to recently published reports, boligprisene have exceeded all expectations in 2024, and the trend is set to continue into the new year.
Grethe Meier, the managing director of Privatmegleren, was quoted saying, "2024 turned out to be better than all expectations. While the first quarter was particularly weak, activity picked up significantly from April onwards, leading to a surge in sales." Meier further explained that the expected decline in boligprisene was counteracted by an increase in the volume of sales, surpassing everyone’s predictions.
Similarly, NHO’s chief economist, Øystein Dørum, concurred with this assessment. "We had estimated that boligprisene would drop by 1 percent from 2023 to 2024, but with one month left in the year, it looks like they will increase by 3 percent instead," he said. Dørum attributed this surprise to several factors, including the robust job market and lower than expected inflation.
However, ще(é experienced economists are now predicting a potential boom in the housing market by 2025. Meier asserted, "Many people have positioned themselves for significant boligpris increases this year. We’ve already seen a strong start, with peopleابbeing more eager to spend after enjoying solid bonus payoffs and reductions in inflation."
Meier foresees a boligpris increase of over 10 percent in Oslo and around 10 percent in outlying districts. Kari Due-Andresen, the chief economist at Akershus Eiendom, expects even higher growth, suggesting that Oslo may see a two-digit increase in boligprisene. She believes that the recent reduction in the mortgage interest rate ceiling and the relaxation of the lending rules will further boost the market.
Nevertheless, some gloomy clouds are looming on the horizon. Meier expresses concern for young people trying to enter the market in 2025, warning that it will be increasingly difficult and expensive for them to acquire a home. She even refers to the situation as a "real crisis."
Dørum in NHO expects boligprisene to increase by approximately 4 percent in 2025, citing a combination of factors including the relaxation of lending rules and a strong job market. However, he also warns that international economic uncertainty could disrupt these predictions. "The picture around us is fundamentally uncertain. A shock in the international economy could either lead to higher price growth and less savings, or weaken growth and increase unemployment," he says.
While the future of the boligmarked is uncertain, one thing is for sure – 2025 will be an interesting year for both buyers and investors.
