Peru is currently navigating a dual climate challenge as it experiences a moderate El Niño event with a strengthening trend, occurring simultaneously with an anomalous climate phenomenon that began in 2022. According to agroclimatic expert Ulises Osorio, this combination is expected to impact national agriculture, fisheries, and regional weather patterns, potentially persisting until 2028 or 2030.
Did You Know? The current anomalous climate event has historical precedent in Peru, having previously occurred between 1974 and 1982, mirroring current conditions that differ significantly from a standard El Niño cycle.
How is the agricultural sector being affected?
The convergence of a coastal El Niño, a global El Niño (3.4), and the anomalous event is causing generalized stress across various crops. Osorio notes that while El Niño traditionally favors heat-loving plants, the current superimposed phenomenon is negatively affecting diverse production. Specifically, mango, olive, and mandarin crops are struggling with conditions such as increased daytime temperatures, reduced nighttime temperatures, heightened solar radiation, and stronger winds. Mandarin harvests have already failed to meet export standards regarding color, uniformity, and sugar content.
What are the risks for small-scale farmers?
While large agroexporting companies have successfully implemented adaptation strategies—contributing to over 15,000 million dollars in revenue—small and medium-sized producers remain vulnerable due to a lack of technical resources. Osorio warns that many smaller farmers are shifting toward rice cultivation to secure income, a trend that could trigger market saturation, overproduction, and volatile pricing. Effective prevention and training across the coast, sierra, and selva regions are described as essential to mitigating these economic risks.
Expert Insight: The disparity in resilience between large-scale exporters and smallholders highlights a critical gap in national infrastructure. While the former can invest in new inputs to counter climate shifts, the latter’s tendency to pivot toward staple crops like rice suggests a reactive, rather than strategic, approach that may lead to secondary market crises if not managed with targeted technical support.
What weather conditions are expected in the coming months?
Projections indicate that while the northern regions may face intense rainfall, these events will likely be localized and short-lived rather than widespread. In the southern regions, the global El Niño is expected to cause delays in the start of the rainy season. Furthermore, the anomalous climate event is linked to an increase in cold weather hazards; Osorio estimates that the number of “friajes” (cold snaps) could exceed 30, significantly higher than the historical average of 16.
This warming of the sea also presents a threat to the fishing industry, as it alters the distribution of marine species and disrupts the food chain for seabirds. Experts emphasize that solutions for maintaining crop cycles and yields exist, but they require a comprehensive, multi-regional focus on prevention and technical assistance.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current intensity of El Niño in Peru?
According to Ulises Osorio, the country is facing a moderate El Niño with a clear tendency to strengthen.
How long could the anomalous climate event last?
Specialists indicate the event began in 2022 and has a potential duration extending through 2028–2030.
Why are mandarin exports failing to meet standards?
The current climate conditions, characterized by high solar radiation and temperature fluctuations, have negatively impacted the fruit’s color, sugar content, and overall uniformity.
What steps should be prioritized to protect the livelihoods of small-scale farmers during these prolonged climate events?
