Putin Pulls Back from the Middle East: Is This the End of Russia’s Global Reach?

According to reporting by The Times, Russia’s military influence in the Middle East and globally has faced a series of setbacks as Syria announced changes to the control of the Hmeimim air base and Tartus naval facility. These strategic shifts coincide with diplomatic friction across Eastern Europe and Central Asia as traditional allies distance themselves from Moscow.

Loss of Exclusive Control Over Syrian Military Bases

Syria announced that the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval facility will no longer be under the exclusive control of Moscow, according to The Times. Instead, these military installations will transition into centers for “joint training,” while civilian facilities at both bases will be handed over to Damascus. These sites served as Russia’s only official military bases outside the former Soviet Union.

The shift follows the fall of Bashar al-Assad in 2024, who was ousted by rebel forces and replaced as president by Ahmed al-Sharaa, a commander in the Islamist-led insurgency. Although the Russian military backed Assad for nine years, President Putin ordered his forces to remain on the sidelines as rebels advanced on Damascus. Hanna Note, an expert on Russian foreign policy and the Middle East, stated that it is increasingly unlikely Russia can utilize the Syrian bases for military purposes moving forward, though she noted it should not be entirely ruled out.

Impact on Supply Routes and Domestic Critics

Russia previously relied on its Syrian infrastructure to ferry supplies and fighters to the Kremlin-controlled African Corps—the successor to the Wagner mercenary group—operating in Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, and other parts of the continent. While the new agreement allows Moscow to retain limited fueling rights for military aircraft at Hmeimim, the arrangement offers little comfort to Russian supporters, according to Nikita Smagin, an expert on Iranian affairs and Russian Middle East policy. The deal has drawn sharp criticism from hardliners inside Russia.

Diplomatic Blows Across Former Soviet States and Allies

Beyond the Middle East, the Kremlin has faced mounting challenges to its global influence. In South Caucasus, Armenia and Azerbaijan have drifted away from Moscow’s sphere of influence. In Latin America, Nicolás Maduro, the pro-Russian leader of Venezuela, was captured by American special forces. In Europe, Viktor Orbán—whose Hungarian government was frequently viewed as a Kremlin ally within the European Union—was defeated in elections.

Other traditional partners are signaling distance from Moscow. Serbia, which avoided imposing sanctions on Russia following the 2022 invasion, welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for his first visit since the war began. A Ukrainian official described the talks between Zelenskyy and President Aleksandar Vucic as a “slap in the face” for Putin, aimed at drawing Serbians away from the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev publicly told Putin it was time for Russia to stop fighting in Ukraine. During the exchange, Putin appeared visibly uncomfortable. Following the remarks, the Kremlin asserted that Tokayev failed to understand the “root causes” of the conflict.

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