A severe fuel crisis across Russian regions has triggered the sharpest weekly decline in President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating since June 2018. According to the state-run Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM), the president’s approval fell by 3.5 percentage points to 66.9% during the week from 22 to 28 June. This drop marks a significant shift in public sentiment, surpassing the impact of previous major events, including the 2022 autumn mobilization and the blocking of Telegram.
Why is the fuel shortage impacting approval ratings?
The scarcity of fuel has transitioned from a localized economic issue into a broader social crisis, according to political analyst Sergey Kolesnikov. Speaking to The Moscow Times, Kolesnikov noted that while public fatigue regarding the war has been present, it is now manifesting as direct irritation, although people still lack the tools for a full-fledged protest. Political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov characterized the situation by stating, “The empty gas tank turned out to be worse than an empty refrigerator. The shortage of gasoline quickly ceased to be an economic problem, becoming a test of the state’s ability to manage a crisis that affects not abstract macroeconomics, but daily normality.”
The current 3.5-point drop in approval is the most dramatic shift since June 2018, when President Putin’s rating fell by 8.5 points following the announcement of pension age reforms.
How does the current crisis compare to historical economic dips?
Economic indicators suggest that the fuel crisis is exacerbating a general deterioration of the economy. Data from Gallup indicates that 56% of Russians reported a decline in their standard of living this year, a 20-year high. Furthermore, 60% of citizens polled believe the economic situation will continue to deteriorate. Andrey Khokhrin, executive director of Ivolga Capital, drew a stark historical parallel, suggesting the current trajectory resembles 1991, describing a process of “accelerating economic degradation,” where the “Vremya” program reported everything was going according to plan, followed by a rapid collapse.
Is the government losing its grip on public perception?
While the president’s personal approval rating has suffered, the cabinet’s performance ratings have remained relatively stable. VCIOM data shows the government’s approval rating dipped only slightly by 0.2 points during the same week. Interestingly, the percentage of those who disapprove of the cabinet’s work actually decreased to 23%. This discrepancy suggests that the public holds the president accountable for the situation.
Historical Rating Context
- Peak Approval: 79.2% in May 2025.
- Recent Low: 65.6% in April.
- Current Standing: 66.9% as of late June.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the current approval rating compare to the war peak?
As of late June, President Putin’s approval rating is 12.3 percentage points lower than the peak recorded in May 2025.
Did the 2022 mobilization cause a larger drop than the fuel crisis?
No. According to VCIOM, neither the autumn 2022 mobilization, the blocking of Telegram, nor the stopping of the internet caused a decline as significant as the one observed during the recent fuel shortage.
What is the primary driver of public dissatisfaction?
Analysts identify the fuel shortage as the primary trigger, as it disrupts daily normality and exposes perceived failures in state crisis management.
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