Rising Fuel Prices Threaten Republican Midterm Prospects
The average price of gasoline during Donald Trump’s presidency is projected to reach $3.46 per gallon, a new record that surpasses the peak set by his predecessor, Joe Biden, according to an analysis by the Financial Times reported by Børsen.no. This surge in fuel costs, which accelerated following military strikes on Iran in February, has become a central economic concern for voters heading into Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Jason Bordoff, director of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy, described these costs as "self-inflicted wounds" that have placed the current administration on the defensive. Inflation remains a persistent issue, with September figures showing a 3.6 percent increase—one percentage point higher than when Trump took office. For many Americans, these rising costs at the pump function as an unlegislated tax increase, according to Bob McNally, a former energy advisor to George W. Bush.
Voters Feel Financial Situations Worsen Despite Broader Trends
Kyrre M. Knudsen, chief economist at Sparebank 1 Sør-Norge, noted that many Americans report in surveys that they are concerned about economic uncertainty and noise, despite broader average economic trends. A Financial Times survey found that 56 percent of voters feel their financial situation has worsened under the current administration.
Knudsen suggests this paradox stems from the rising cost of essentials like food and energy, combined with a general sense of political instability. The frustration is reflected in public opinion; CNBC’s "All-America Economic Survey" indicated that 65 percent of respondents disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy. Anthony Scaramucci, a former White House press secretary, characterized the current climate as a struggle between two conflicting visions for the country’s future.
Legislative Control at Risk
Current polling suggests the Republican party faces significant losses in the upcoming midterm elections, with Democrats favored to regain control of the House of Representatives.
A potential loss of the House would make it more difficult for Trump to implement new tax cuts, according to Kyrre M. Knudsen, chief economist at Sparebank 1 Sør-Norge.
Federal Budget Deficit and National Debt Continue Growing
While the high debt and rising interest rates remain a long-term concern, Knudsen notes that a potential Republican defeat could ironically alleviate some pressure on the deficit.
Inflation and Fuel Prices Exceed Past Administration Levels
How do current inflation rates compare to the start of the administration?
Inflation in September 2026 was 3.6 percent, which is one percentage point higher than when Trump entered the White House, according to data cited by Børsen.no.
Has the administration met its specific energy pricing goals?
No. President Trump previously promised to lower fuel prices to under $2 per gallon, but national averages have risen by 16.5 percent since 2024, as reported by Nettavisen. Additionally, electricity costs have increased by 14.1 percent since January 2025.
What is the significance of the upcoming midterm election for the president’s agenda?
If Republicans lose their majority in the House of Representatives, the president will likely lose control over domestic policy, including future tax reforms and budget negotiations, as the opposition party would have the power to block his legislative proposals.
Earlier coverage: Record Gas Prices Threaten Trump's Midterm Election Hopes