Russia Expands African Influence by Over a Quarter as Western Footprint Shrinks
Data from the Foreign Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) index, compiled by the University of Denver’s Pardee Institute, shows that Russia’s proportion of foreign influence in Africa has grown by more than a quarter over the last ten years, climbing from 2.2% in 2015 to 2.8% in 2024. While Western powers still hold more overall sway on the continent, Moscow’s growing footprint in defence, energy, and agriculture creates fresh diplomatic friction for Washington and its European allies.
Despite Russia’s gains, China continues to dominate trade across the continent. Beijing currently leads all external partners in foreign influence capacity in Africa with an 11% share, according to the FBIC index, compared to 7% each for the Unitedates and France.
Trade Volumes Highlight Differing Economic Approaches
Beijing’s economic lead is anchored by bilateral trade that reached $348 billion in 2025, which is more than 12 times Russia’s merchandise trade total. By contrast, Russia’s commercial influence remains modest, with total annual trade hovering around $30.4 billion.
Russia accounts for under 1.5% of Africa’s total foreign trade, but Moscow has carved out targeted strategic sectors. IntelliNews reported that Russia’s “expanding pull on the continent rests on guns, grain and reactors, not money.”
Did you know?
Moscow provides 15% of major African weapons imports, brings in 31% of the continent’s wheat shipments, and makes up 18% of its fertilizer deliveries.
Nuclear Energy Investments and Sahel Security Shifts
Beyond commodities and defense, Moscow is expanding its infrastructure footprint through major energy projects. According to Business Insider Africa, Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom is backing 85% of the cost for Egypt’s $29 billion El Dabaa nuclear power plant, alongside efforts to secure additional nuclear agreements in West and East Africa.
This expansion coincides with a broader contraction of Western military presence. Historical data from the FBIC index indicates that France’s portion of foreign influence capacity in Africa stood at 15.5% in 1995, but that figure has since fallen by over half to 7%. Military-led governments in the Sahel, such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, have asked French and American troops to leave while forging defense pacts with Moscow’s Africa Corps.
At the same time, African nations are using multipolar diplomacy to expand their economic options. H. A. Hellyer, a scholar at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, explained to Business Insider Africa that: “Egypt sees itself as moving toward greater strategic autonomy,” “It wants strong relations with Washington, but also Beijing, Moscow, and Europe”.
Frequently Asked Questions About Foreign Influence in Africa
How much has Russia’s influence in Africa grown over the past decade?
According to data from the Foreign Bilateral Influence Capacity index compiled by the University of Denver’s Pardee Institute, Russia’s share of foreign influence in Africa rose from 2.2% in 2015 to 2.8% in 2024.
What are the primary drivers of China’s economic lead in Africa?
Beijing’s economic lead is driven by bilateral trade, which reached $348 billion in 2025, dwarfing Russia’s annual trade total of around $30.4 billion.
How is Russia financing the El Dabaa nuclear power plant in Egypt?
Business Insider Africa reported that the Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom is financing 85% of the $29 billion project.
What was France’s share of foreign influence capacity in Africa historically?
Historical tracking from the FBIC index shows that France held a 15.5% share of foreign influence capacity in Africa in 1995 before dropping by more than half to 7%.