According to a working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, one-third of young scientists planning academic research careers changed their minds in the spring of 2025. Fewer doctoral students and postdoctoral fellows now expect to remain in higher education or work in the United States, and growing numbers question whether pursuing a Ph.D. was the right decision amid tightening government science funding policies.
Decline in Academic Career Intentions Among Young Researchers
The survey, conducted in March 2025 by Harvard Business School professor Raffaella Sadun and colleagues from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Monash University, revealed a sharp drop in academic ambition. Prior to the survey, 66 percent of respondents reported they were likely to stay in academia. By March 2025, that figure fell 22 percentage points to 44 percent, according to the working paper.
Furthermore, nearly a fourth of respondents who previously expected to stay and work in the U.S. no longer viewed that outcome as likely. The proportion of scientists likely or very likely to remain in the country dropped from 93 percent six months earlier to 72 percent by March 2025.
Policy Uncertainty and Government Science Funding Pressure
The shift in sentiment coincided with tightening government policy on science funding and the presence of international students. Although initial administrative efforts faced stymies in the courts, the high-profile campaign and the lack of a final legal resolution fueled widespread uncertainty among younger scientists regarding domestic career prospects, according to the study.
“We were running interviews with senior postdocs in the labs, and we started to realize we were in the middle of a pretty big policy change,” said Raffaella Sadun, the Charles Edward Wilson Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, describing palpable anxiety among researchers regarding the research funding environment.
Impact on Ph.D. Satisfaction and U.S. Economic Growth
Satisfaction with doctoral training also dropped. While 92 percent of respondents reported being neutral or satisfied with their decision to pursue a Ph.D. six months prior to the survey, that share fell to 76 percent by March 2025. Overall, 17 percent fewer respondents expressed satisfaction or neutrality regarding their doctoral degree compared with six months earlier.
The research team gathered responses from 916 scientists across 770 labs and 134 institutions, drawing from a broader sample of 2,466 biomedical research labs funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Sadun noted that the shrinking population of trained scientific talent poses a direct threat to the partnership between the U.S. government and universities that drives national leadership in discovery, innovation, and economic growth.
Frequently Asked Questions
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What caused the decline in young scientists planning academic careers?
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, tightening government policies on science funding and international students created policy uncertainty that disrupted career plans for about one-third of surveyed academic researchers.
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When was the survey conducted?
The survey was conducted in March 2025 by researchers from Harvard Business School, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Monash University.
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How many scientists participated in the survey?
The survey received responses from 916 scientists representing 770 laboratories across 134 institutions.
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