Russia’s Long Game in Donbas: A Two-Year Outlook?
Recent assessments from Western intelligence agencies, as reported by The New York Times, suggest Russia may require up to two more years to fully establish control over the Donbas region of Ukraine. This timeline isn’t necessarily a reflection of military setbacks, but rather a calculated strategy by Vladimir Putin, who reportedly believes Russia is winning the war and views ongoing conflict as advantageous.
Putin’s Strategy: Time as a Weapon
According to the report, Putin believes each day of fighting, and each Russian strike on Ukrainian infrastructure, strengthens his position. This suggests a willingness to endure a protracted conflict, even if it means a slower-than-anticipated advance in Donbas. The strategy appears to be one of attrition, aiming to wear down Ukrainian defenses and resolve over an extended period.
Economic Pressures and Potential Dealmaking
While Russia pursues its military objectives, its economy is facing significant challenges. Simultaneously, the possibility of substantial investment in Russia from the US, contingent on a resolution to the conflict, has been proposed. This dynamic introduces a potential pathway to a negotiated settlement, particularly if it involves a ceasefire and Ukrainian withdrawal from the remaining parts of Donbas.
The New York Times notes that some analysts believe Putin might be open to a deal, especially one that includes improved relations with the United States and a favorable outcome in Donbas. This suggests a willingness to compromise, but only from a position of strength.
The Current Situation in Donbas
As of February 18, 2026, Ukraine controls approximately 10% of the territory within the Donbas region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that the Ukrainian people would not accept a peace deal that involves ceding Donbas to Russia. Zelenskyy has also requested a direct meeting with Vladimir Putin to discuss the issue.
Zelenskyy’s Stance: No Concessions on Donbas
President Zelenskyy has firmly stated that Ukraine will not concede Donbas to Russia, reflecting the strong sentiment of the Ukrainian population. He has also indicated a willingness to consider troop withdrawals, but only on a reciprocal basis with Russian forces. This highlights the core challenge in negotiations: finding a mutually acceptable solution regarding the status of Donbas.
Zelenskyy has also emphasized that Russia cannot claim sovereignty over Ukrainian territory.
FAQ
Q: How long does Russia expect to fully control Donbas?
A: Western intelligence estimates suggest Russia believes it will take between 18 months and two years to establish full control.
Q: Is Russia open to negotiations?
A: Russia appears willing to engage in negotiations, but primarily to buy time and potentially secure a favorable outcome, including control of Donbas.
Q: What is Ukraine’s position on Donbas?
A: Ukraine, led by President Zelenskyy, has stated it will not cede Donbas to Russia.
Q: What role could the US play in resolving the conflict?
A: Potential US investment in Russia, contingent on a peace agreement, could incentivize a negotiated settlement.
Did you know? The economic pressures facing Russia could be a key factor in its willingness to negotiate a resolution to the conflict.
Pro Tip: Follow reputable news sources like The New York Times and Reuters for ongoing updates on the situation in Ukraine and the Donbas region.
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