Russian Forces Likely Capture Ukrainian City of Ukraine-Russia War</strong></p>”>Kurakhove
A recent report suggests that Russian troops have likely seized control of Kurakhove in the Donetsk region. Geolocated images released on December 24 and 25 show Russian forces had recently advanced into the western parts of the city and were near a windbreak belt southwest of the city.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated that Russian forces had likely advanced to the administrative borders and captured Kurakhove, along with fields to the south of the city and north of the village of Dal’niye.
Russian military bloggers claim that units from the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Army, former 1st Army Corps " Donetsk People’s Republic", ACR "DNR") raised a flag over the western part of Kurakhove. Meanwhile, units of the 110th and 114th Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army, as well as the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions (both – 8th Army, Southern Military District, MIO), were conducting offensive operations along the northern and southern flanks of Kurakhove.
Russian sources have issued conflicting claims about the scale of Russian advances in Kurakhove. Some military bloggers assert that Russian forces have pushed beyond the city towards the village of Dachnoe (west of Kurakhove). Meanwhile, others insist that Russian troops are unsuccessfully assaulting the Kurakhovska TPP (Thermal Power Plant) west of the city, which ISW assesses lies beyond Kurakhove’s administrative borders.
The Operational-Tactical Grouping of Forces "Khorтица" acknowledged that Defense Forces had recently lost unspecified positions in the direction of Kurakhove.
Significant Losses
The ISW calculated that the Russian Army spent over two months capturing Kurakhove, which has an area of 7.3 square kilometers. Russian forces intensified their offensive operations to seize the city in mid-October 2024.
According to the Institute, Russian military forces concentrated between 35,000 to 36,000 personnel in the direction of Kurakhove to capture the city and eliminate Ukrainian positions to the north and south of it. ISW noted that Russian forces had likely suffered significant losses during this intensified offensive period, including significant losses of armored vehicles in tank attacks near and in the city.
Challenging Prosects for Russian Advancement
ISW analysts believe that Russian forces may struggle to quickly advance westward from Kurakhove along the N15 highway towards Pokrovske. This would occur if Ukrainian forces choose to defend at the Kurakhovske TPP and if Russian forces cannot bypass Ukrainian positions at the TPP near Dachnoe or Uhlakovo from the flank.
Russian military bloggers assert that Ukrainian forces still maintain a presence in the Kurakhovske TPP area west of the city along the N15 highway.
"If defensive forces deploy sufficient manpower and equipment for defense in this area, Russian forces may attempt to advance further west along the N15 highway from Kurakhove by conducting a frontal assault through the Kurakhovske TPP area," the report stated.
Russian forces may instead attempt to bypass the TPP by moving further south from the highway through fields west and northwest of Dal’niye (south of Kurakhove) towards Uhlakovo (west of Kurakhove).
ISW did not rule out the possibility that Russian forces may also try to advance south from the village of Starye Terny (northwest of Kurakhove and on the northwestern shore of the Kurakhovske Reservoir) to Dachnoe (west of Kurakhove) to outflank Ukrainian positions at the TPP.
Russian forces may also attempt to advance north from Zelenivka (southwest of Kurakhove) in the direction of Uhlakovo, which would threaten the defense forces’ ability to maintain positions at the TPP and complicate any potential future withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the station and positions south of Dachnoe.
Russian Units Attacking Kurakhove
The main forces involved in the capture of Kurakhove were units of the 51st Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade (OMB), coinciding with ongoing efforts to centralize and formalize this unit under the Russian armed forces.
Elements of the 5th and 110th Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army Corps (AC) participated in most tactically significant offensive operations in Kurakhove since mid-October 2024 and were involved in offensive operations west of Donetsk since at least summer 2024.
Moreover, ISW noted the presence of 150th Motorized Rifle Division units in Kurakhove, likely overseeing brigade operations in the city and future offensive operations west of it.
"The Russian government has recently intensified its efforts to formalize former ‘DNR’ units under the Russian army and will likely acknowledge and praise these forces for their role in capturing Kurakhove in the coming days," the ISW report noted.
