Saudi Red Sea Oil Exports Stop Amid Houthi Threats

Saudi crude exports from the Red Sea are increasingly vanishing from view as tankers switch off tracking signals to avoid attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, according to ship-tracking firms and industry analysts. The shift obscures visibility into global oil supply assessments and creates wide discrepancies in export estimates used by the International Energy Agency and OPEC.

The Impact of Houthi Maritime Embargoes on Red Sea Shipping

Following a maritime embargo declared by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia on July 20, the militant group has claimed attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, Yanbu oil facilities, and the Jazan refinery on the Red Sea coast. These security threats have prompted vessels to operate without publicly visible tracking data. Ship-tracking firms report that all recent Yanbu crude loadings have been conducted without Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals active. Vortexa analyst George Morris noted that liftings from Yanbu last week were conducted entirely dark, with no loadings observed with AIS on. Similarly, Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe stated that roughly 70% of Saudi west coast loadings over the past few weeks were dark, affecting all Yanbu cargoes loaded since July 23.

Conflicting Export Data Highlights Tracking Difficulties

The reliance on dark voyages has severely complicated export estimates. For the week beginning August 3, data analytics firm Vortexa estimated that Yanbu loadings fell to 2.38 million barrels per day (bpd) down from 2.71 million bpd the previous week. Meanwhile, Kpler estimated a much sharper decline to 1.78 million bpd from 4.04 million bpd, whereas AXSMarine calculated an increase to 640,000 bpd from about 420,000 bpd. Saudi Aramco did not respond to a request for comment regarding these varying figures.

Rerouting Crude Toward Mediterranean and Northern Channels

Amid disruptions where Iran’s effective blockade has severely disrupted normal shipping, Saudi Arabia has sought to reroute crude toward the Red Sea. However, traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea has slowed significantly, dropping to an average of 32 vessels a day last week compared to about 50 a day prior to the blockade, according to Kpler data. To bypass these chokepoints, shipping data indicates the kingdom has sent more oil north via the Suez Canal and Egypt’s SUMED pipeline, connecting Ain Sokhna on the Red Sea to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast. Consequently, crude and condensate loadings at Sidi Kerir reached a record 2.17 million bpd last week, marking around 50% higher than the previous week, with about 90% of those volumes Saudi crude, according to Vortexa’s Morris.

Rising Costs and Changing Tanker Operations

War risk insurance costs have jumped in recent days, forcing tanker operators to adjust their sailing strategies. Major tanker operator DHT has experienced these operational hurdles firsthand. DHT CEO Svein Moxnes Harfjeld stated on an earnings call that exiting the Red Sea via Bab al-Mandeb has become a bit more challenging as of late, noting that most of the VLCC (supertanker) loadings have been directed north, northwest now.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are Saudi tankers turning off their tracking signals?

Tankers are switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals to avoid attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.

How are analysts tracking oil exports if vessels are operating dark?

Ship-tracking firms rely on satellite data to cross-check vessel movements and monitor ships when they reappear on tracking systems after leaving high-risk areas.

Where is Saudi Arabia redirecting its oil exports to avoid Red Sea and Persian Gulf threats?

Saudi Arabia has increased shipments north through the Suez Canal and Egypt’s SUMED pipeline, pushing crude and condensate loadings at Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast to record highs.