Second half of summer to bring chances for rain but heatwave threat persists

Global weather systems are currently shifting toward a strong El Niño phase, a transition that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says could be at least moderate – and possibly strong by this fall. While the phenomenon originates in the Pacific, its ripple effects are hitting the fastest-warming continent on Earth: Europe.

WMO Forecasts and the 90 Percent Probability

The UN weather agency indicates that the likelihood of El Niño developing by November is near or above 90 percent. This is not a guaranteed weather script for every region, but it acts as a force multiplier for existing climate trends. According to the WMO, global warming amplifies these events because warmer oceans and atmospheres provide more energy and moisture for extremes.

El Nino is arriving on our doorstep. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.

For Europe, the stakes are high. The continent has seen temperatures rise by approximately 0.56C per decade since the mid-1990s, more than double the global average. This rapid warming leaves health systems and agriculture exposed to what the WMO warns could be exacerbated drought and heavy rainfall.

European Heat Domes and ‘Exceptional’ Wildfire Risks

The current season has already seen a dangerous start. Western Europe experienced intense heat in the second half of May, with the UK, Portugal, and Ireland recording their highest May temperatures on record, according to Channel 4 News. This was driven by a heat dome—a high-pressure system that traps heat and dissipates clouds.

For more on this story, see Thunderstorms Bring Wind and Rain to Zurich.

A major and potentially record-breaking heatwave is expected to develop across a large swathe of Europe in the coming days, with temperatures widely reaching 32-37C and localized peaks around 40C in Italy, France, and Spain. This follows a period in the second half of May where daytime temperatures were 10-15C above average.

The impact is moving beyond temperature readings into public safety crises. The BBC reported that three record-breaking heatwaves and a lack of rain have created an exceptional wildfire danger in East Anglia. Strengthening winds and low humidity are accelerating the drying of vegetation, making it easier for small sparks to trigger rapid spreads. Stronger winds would also allow any fires that do break out to spread more rapidly and become harder to contain. The risk is expected to ease slightly toward the middle of next week as winds become lighter and the chance of showers increases, though exceptional wildfire danger could persist across East Anglia by Wednesday.

Looking ahead to the second half of summer, the outlook remains volatile. While BBC weather data from DTN suggests a chance of more wet weather for Scotland and Northern Ireland due to low-pressure areas, England and Wales are likely to see temperatures remain above the seasonal norm into early August. The latest sub-seasonal forecast from DTN suggests low pressure will feature more prominently over the next couple of weeks for Northern Ireland and Scotland, but the Azores high—a semi-permanent large area of high pressure over the North Atlantic—is likely to be close by, which will keep things drier.

U.S. Extremes: From Southwest Heat Domes to Carolina Droughts

In the United States, the weather pattern has been chaotic. On March 16, 2026, blizzard conditions hit Madison, Wisconsin, while CBS News reported that a heat dome in the Southwest pushed Arizona temperatures into the triple digits much earlier than normal.

Simultaneously, the Carolinas are battling severe drought. Data from the rain gauges at local airport climate stations show below normal precipitation almost every month so far this year. In Wilmington, NC, the year-to-date total is 11.16, a departure from normal of -7.38. In Lumberton, NC, the total is 11.29 with a departure of -3.71. N. Myrtle Beach, SC, recorded 6.77 (-8.87 departure), and Florence, SC, recorded 13.28 (-2.70 departure). The current National Drought Monitor shows severe to locally extreme drought continues across parts of North and South Carolina.

This follows our earlier report, Weather Forecast: Cooler Temperatures and the End of the Heatwave?.

Other extreme conditions have caused significant disruption. Chaotic weather put more than half the nation’s population in the path of extreme conditions on Monday, including a surprising heat wave in California, blizzards in the Midwest, and storms on the East Coast. This resulted in almost 13,000 flights canceled or delayed across the U.S. and early school closures in mid-Atlantic states due to forecast high winds. By Tuesday at 6 a.m., FlightAware reported more than 2,100 flights had been canceled or delayed, with travelers facing jams at security checkpoints due to a partial government shutdown.