Southern Manitoba faces a heightened risk of severe weather on Monday, June 29, as a low-pressure system moving from the U.S. Rockies triggers potential thunderstorm development. This follows a weekend of heavy precipitation and a reported tornado southwest of Rossburn, which reportedly damaged several homes, according to CMOS Accredited Weathercaster Chris Sumner.
Did You Know? The region has already received significant rainfall, with Somerset recording 47.5mm of precipitation between Saturday and Monday morning, according to data from PembinaValleyOnline Rainwatchers and the Manitoba Ag Weather Network.
What is the forecast for the remainder of Monday?
Meteorologists expect a lull in activity following Monday morning’s showers, but the atmosphere remains primed for further development. According to Chris Sumner, a surface low-pressure system pushing north from the Dakotas will bring ample moisture and instability to the region. Strong wind shear is also present in the atmosphere, creating conditions that could lead to rotating storms and a potential for tornadoes. The risk of severe weather is expected to span from late Monday morning in Western Manitoba through the early to mid-evening hours for areas further east.
How much rain has the region received so far?
Precipitation totals collected from Sunday, June 28, through 5:00 a.m. Monday, June 29, show widespread moisture across the area. Somerset reported the highest total at 47.5mm. Other significant totals include 30.2mm in Reinland, 30mm in Woodmore, 28mm in Plum Coulee, and 27mm in Morden. Lower totals were recorded in areas such as Steinbach at 6.8mm and Elm Creek at 6.9mm.
Expert Insight: The transition from a wet weekend to a high-instability environment creates a challenging scenario for residents. When wind shear is combined with high moisture levels, the potential for rapid storm intensification increases significantly, making real-time weather monitoring essential for public safety.
Frequently Asked Questions
Was the tornado reported near Rossburn part of Monday’s expected weather?
No. According to Chris Sumner, the tornado that hit homes near Rossburn was caused by a system that moved through earlier, and the weather expected later on Monday is separate from that event.
What regions are at risk for severe storms on Monday?
The severe thunderstorm risk includes the Pembina and Red River Valleys. The timing for this activity is expected to range from late morning in Western Manitoba through the early to mid-evening for eastern parts of the region.
Why is there a risk of tornadoes today?
According to Chris Sumner, the combination of moisture, atmospheric instability, and strong wind shear creates conditions conducive to rotating storm development, which serves as a precursor for potential tornadoes.
How are you preparing your household for potential severe weather ahead of the mid-week holiday?
