The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) has issued a severe weather alert for Mexico, warning of four days of intense rainfall, electrical storms, and strong winds affecting much of the country from Sunday, July 12, through Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Heavy downpours, with accumulations reaching 150 millimeters, are expected to hit Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Puebla, and Veracruz throughout Sunday, with the storm track shifting toward the northwest and northern regions as the week progresses.
Regional Rainfall Forecast and Daily Distribution
The impact of this weather system will be widespread. On Sunday, July 12, intense rainfall between 75 and 150 millimeters is expected in the center and coast of Michoacán, parts of Guerrero, northern and western Oaxaca, southeastern Puebla, and central and southern Veracruz. By Monday, July 13, the focus of the heaviest precipitation shifts to Durango, Sinaloa, Michoacán, and Guerrero. The risk continues to migrate on Tuesday, July 14, toward southeastern Sonora, southwestern Chihuahua, western Durango, and northern and central Sinaloa. On Wednesday, July 15, the SMN forecasts that northeastern Coahuila could see the highest intensity, with accumulations up to 150 millimeters.
Did You Know?
Did You Know? Each millimeter of rainfall is equivalent to approximately one liter of water collected over one square meter. Consequently, an accumulation of 150 millimeters represents 150 liters of water per square meter, significantly increasing the risk of flash flooding and soil saturation.
Cyclone Development and Atmospheric Conditions
The current temporal is driven by cyclonic circulations, low-pressure channels, and the movement of tropical waves. A zone of low pressure currently located off the southern coast of Guerrero is being monitored for potential cyclonic development. According to the SMN, this system may absorb tropical wave number 18 on Monday, July 13, and could advance along the coasts of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco. While the system shows potential for development, authorities have not confirmed that it will evolve into a named tropical storm or hurricane at this time.
Expert Insight: Managing Storm Risks
Expert Insight: The combination of high-intensity rainfall and pre-existing soil conditions in mountainous regions creates a significant risk for landslides and sudden river overflows. Following official guidance from the Coordinación Nacional de Protección Civil is essential, as the interaction between tropical waves and atmospheric troughs can cause unpredictable spikes in rainfall intensity.
Heat and Coastal Conditions
While large portions of the country face heavy rain, extreme heat persists in the north and along the Pacific littoral. Temperatures in Baja California could exceed 45 degrees Celsius on Tuesday and Wednesday, while Sonora, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, and Baja California Sur are expected to remain between 40 and 45 degrees. Additionally, the storm systems are generating high seas, with wave heights expected to reach up to 3.5 meters along the coasts of Colima, Michoacán, and Guerrero.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main risks associated with these storms?
The SMN warns of potential flooding in low-lying areas, the rapid rise of rivers and streams, and landslides in mountainous terrain. Other risks include reduced visibility due to rain or fog, the collapse of trees or structures due to high winds, and service interruptions in electricity and transportation.
Is the current low-pressure system already a tropical cyclone?
No. The SMN is monitoring the system for potential cyclonic development, but it has not yet been classified as a tropical storm or hurricane. Its trajectory and intensity remain subject to change and are currently under observation.
What safety measures should be taken during the rainfall?
Authorities advise against crossing flooded streets or streams, as currents can hide open manholes or pavement damage. Residents should stay away from hillsides and riverbanks, avoid taking shelter under trees during electrical storms, and keep storm drains clear of debris.
How are you and your community preparing for the forecasted shift in weather intensity this week?
