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Title: Sinaloa Cartel Civil War: New Alliance Hypotheses and Potential Implications
Meta Description: The ongoing war within the Sinaloa Cartel has led to speculation about new alliances, with the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) emerging as a potential partner for the Chapitos faction. However, the Mayo Zambada capture has thrown a wrench into these plans, with some CJNG lieutenants disagreeing on the alliance’s viability.
Article:
The civil war raging within the Sinaloa Cartel, which has claimed over 500 lives, has sparked intense debate about the future of Mexico’s most powerful criminal organization. Two main factions – Los Chapitos and La Mayiza – have been engaged in a protracted conflict since September 9, 2023, following the presumed kidnapping of Ismael El Mayo Zambada, which ultimately led to his capture in July 2023. This has raised questions about the Sinaloa Cartel’s future and its potential alliances.
The Sinaloa Cartel’s War and Possible Alliances
Some experts, such as the author of "Los Chapitos: radiografía criminal de los herederos del Cártel de Sinaloa," suggest that the Sinaloa Cartel, as we knew it in the early 2000s, may no longer exist. In this new landscape, various groups could potentially absorb remnants of the Sinaloa Cartel, including La Línea (Chihuahua), the Cártel de Caborca (Sonora, Quintana Roo, and Edomex), and the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG).
CJNG: Power Player and Potential Ally
Prior to Mayo Zambada’s capture, hypotheses всяuded to a possible alliance between Los Chapitos and Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, leader of the CJNG. Infobae published an article on this topic in May 2024, highlighting José Luis Montenegro’s analysis of the situation in Sinaloa and the need for survival at the pinnacle of Mexico’s criminal landscape. Following Mayo Zambada’s capture, Montenegro emphasized that this event could indeed pave the way for such an alliance and the rise of Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar to power.
CJNG Lieutenants: Key Players in the Alliance
For the CJNG, several lieutenants could play a crucial role in forging or dismantling an alliance with Los Chapitos. These include Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán (El Sapo), Juan Carlos González Valencia (El R3), Ricardo Ruiz Velasco (Doble R), and Audias Flores Silva (El Jardinero). Montenegro notes that these individuals could leave the CJNG if they disagree with the alliance and form a separate organization, potentially leading to internal ruptures and armed conflicts across the country.
The Potential Impact of a Chapitos-CJNG Alliance
If an alliance between the Chapitos and CJNG materializes, several regions could experience a cessation of hostilities, such as Nayarit and Zacatecas, although persistent conflicts in Chiapas, Guerrero, Aguascalientes, Baja California, and Tabasco might remain. To achieve a nationwide narco peace, the Chapitos and CJNG would first need to end the Sinaloa Cartel’s internal war and defeat Ismael Zambada Sicairos. However, current dynamics and power struggles suggest that this process may not be straightforward.
