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The new “landmark study of the 2024 election” has distilled ten unexpected outcomes from the vote, based on detailed analysis by Tim Bale, Rob Ford, Will Jennings and Paula Surridge.
1. Labour lost the campaign
Labour won the election but its support slipped more than any other party. The party began the campaign 25 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives and finished only 15 points ahead.
Some potential Labour voters either voted tactically for the Liberal Democrats or stayed home, believing Labour’s victory was assured. Concerns about Labour’s ambition and its stance on the Israel‑Gaza conflict also contributed, helping the Greens to surge late in the race.
2. Fear of tax rises wasn’t really a factor
Despite government indecision on fiscal policy, voters expected a Starmer administration to raise taxes and appeared reconciled to that prospect.
Neither Rachel Reeves’s pledge not to increase the “big three” taxes nor Conservative attacks on Labour’s tax plans altered voter perceptions of party intentions on tax and spending.
Overall, the electorate believed taxes should increase to fund public spending, leaving Tory promises of tax cuts on thin ground.
3. Support drifted to more radical alternatives
Labour lost votes to the Greens, who for the first time attracted sizable Muslim support where Gaza‑related independents were not standing.
The Conservative vote fell to Reform UK after Nigel Farage’s entry, splitting the right‑wing vote and aiding Labour’s reclaiming of many “red‑wall” seats in the north and Midlands, while the Liberal Democrats captured parts of the “blue‑wall” in the south. In Wales, Labour’s vote actually declined.
4. Muslim voters turned away from Labour
Muslim voters shifted away from Labour more dramatically than any other group, costing the party several seats.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s Ilford North win narrowed to 528 votes (down from 5,198 in 2019), exemplifying the impact.
Labour also slipped among Hindu voters; the Conservatives’ sole gain was in Leicester East, the constituency with the highest share of Hindu voters.
5. The Conservatives ran out of cash
The Conservatives lifted the national campaign spending limit to around £34 million, yet they exhausted funds before the campaign concluded, unlike Labour.
This cash shortage was most visible online, where Conservative activity collapsed while Labour’s digital effort accelerated sharply.
6. All politics is local
Local issues, grassroots campaigning and tactical voting mattered more than in any recent election.
Voter behaviour varied widely across constituencies, making direct voter contact increasingly decisive for all parties.
7. Scotland is always different
In Scotland, the contest unfolded on a distinct trajectory, with a large swing from the SNP to Scottish Labour, sometimes lifting Labour from third to first place.
This shift was driven by tactical voting among those opposed to Scottish independence.
8. Sadly, the sofa was the biggest winner
Turnout fell to the second‑lowest level in post‑war history, just above 2001, with 41 % of the electorate staying home.
Only 34 % voted for the winning Labour Party, and 8.2 million eligible voters remain unregistered.
9. Many party members sat it out too
Over half of Conservative members and nearly half of Labour members reported doing nothing to help their party during the campaign.
Fewer than one in five members across parties canvassed, and while members were somewhat more generous with donations than time, Conservative donors were notably reluctant.
10. The election reshaped Parliament
The new House of Commons is the most ethnically diverse and gender‑balanced ever, but also the most inexperienced, with more than half of MPs serving their first term.
Among Labour MPs, 56 % are newcomers—a record—while only 23 % of all MPs were privately educated, the lowest proportion on record.
For the first time, no Labour MP entered Parliament directly from a manual occupation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Labour’s lead over the Conservatives shrink during the campaign?
Labour’s early 25‑point advantage narrowed to 15 points as some supporters voted tactically for the Liberal Democrats or abstained, and because of voter concerns over Labour’s ambition and its stance on Israel‑Gaza.
Did tax policy influence voter choices?
Voters expected the new Labour government to raise taxes and were largely comfortable with that expectation; neither Rachel Reeves’s pledge nor Conservative criticism altered overall perceptions of parties’ tax intentions.
What is the significance of the low voter turnout?
Turnout fell to the second‑lowest post‑war level, with more people staying home (41 %) than voting for the winning party (34 %). This highlights a disengagement that could affect the legitimacy of future mandates.
What do you think these shifts mean for the next UK election cycle?
