Theresa May will not be the conservative leader in the fall

Theresa May is committed to her parliamentary group to present in the first week of June a calendar for the election of the new leader of the Conservative Party. The announcement signals the likelihood that another prime minister, possibly a 'brexiter', will be occupying Downing Street when the deadline offered by the European Union for the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement expires at the end of October.

May confirmed to the conservative deputies that he will submit to a vote in the House of Commons, in the first week of June, the bill that translates into British legislation the requirements of the 'Brexit' Agreement, such as the rules of the transition period , the rights of community residents or the authorization of payment of the pending amounts.

After the vote, May will meet with Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, the name given to the meetings of the conservative parliamentary group, and agree on a timetable. The common interpretation is that the election of a new leader will begin immediately if the Agreement is rejected and that it will be postponed at the end of the processing of the law if it is approved.

That vote on the bill is a subterfuge by May, because it can not present for the fourth time a motion in support of the same text of the Agreement signed in November with the European Council. Being a bill, the procedure states that the 'second reading', literally 'second reading', is a vote of acceptance or rejection of the Chamber to process the bill.

Politically it is equivalent to the approval of the Agreement, although the processing of articles of the law could run up against its own problems. In the convoluted world of May, voting will also take place in the first week of June, when Donald Trump visits the United Kingdom, from Monday to Wednesday, and takes place on the British and French coasts, on Thursday, the seventy-fifth anniversary of the Normandy landings. .

The approval of the Bill of the Agreement depends on Labor. The government has maintained a dialogue with the main opposition party and the highest British official in the negotiation with the European Union (EU), Olly Robins, traveled this week to Brussels in what was interpreted as an exploration of how they would be received some ideas shuffled in the London negotiation.

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In recent days, Labor leaders opposed to a 'brexit' without second consultation have expressed their intention to vote against the bill. They are responding to the evasiveness of Jeremy Corbyn's spokesman in the meetings with the 'lobby' of the Parliament's journalists before repeated questions about whether the Labor Party will abstain from voting on the bill.

A Labor abstention could be enough to move the bill forward. Corbyn has insisted, however, that if Parliament is not reached an agreement that includes the positions of its party – permanent customs union, alignment of environmental protection or labor regulations with the EU, … -, it will demand a second consultation.

The antidote to the sense of claustrophobia produced by maneuvers measured millimetrically by conservatives and Labor for not getting badly wounded of the 'brexit' is the continuous expansion of the list of conservative ministers and deputies who offer to replace May, or insinuate it in interviews with large photographs, or express it timidly through 'friends'.

Boris Johnson has confirmed that he will stand for election as the new leader, but he has been on the list for a decade. Let's count now the ministers Andrea Leadsom, Jeremy Hunt, Liz Truss, Amber Rudd, Sajid Javid, Rory Stewart, … To deputies Esther McVey, Dominic Raab, … Minister Michael Gove observes the battlefield with interest and discretion.

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