The Trump administration is dismantling long-running U.S. policy toward Bosnia and Herzegovina, lifting sanctions on the Serb-majority entity’s leaders to clear the path for an opaque energy deal, according to diplomatic records.
The Step-by-Step Rehabilitation of Milorad Dodik
According to U.S. Dodik had dominated Republika Srpska while repeatedly threatening secession and attempting to strip Bosnia’s central institutions of their authority. The U.S. first sanctioned him in 2017 for obstructing the Dayton peace agreement, and expanded penalties in 2022 and 2023 over corruption and attacks on state institutions.
To reverse these measures, Republika Srpska hired RRB Strategies in March 2025. Headed by former Illinois governor and Trump ally Rod Blagojevich, the firm was mandated to lift U.S. sanctions and oppose High Representative Christian Schmidt. Simultaneously, former national security adviser Michael Flynn worked through the Gold Institute for International Strategy to connect Dodik with Washington decision-makers, according to lobbying disclosures. By the fall of 2025, Washington was negotiating directly with Dodik’s government after Republika Srpska reversed several measures challenging state institutions.
The payoff arrived swiftly in October 2025. The U.S. Treasury removed four Dodik allies from the sanctions list on October 17, followed twelve days later by the delisting of Dodik himself, his children, and dozens of associated people and companies, without a detailed public explanation.
The Overnight Emergence of AAFS Infrastructure and Energy
Just 22 days after removing sanctions from the Dodik family, U.S. officials moved to secure pipeline development rights for an entity that did not yet exist. Chargé d’Affaires John Ginkel proposed a new model for the Southern Interconnection pipeline, suggesting an American private company develop and manage it. Four days later, AAFS Infrastructure and Energy LLC was incorporated in Wyoming.
Did you know? AAFS was brought into the venture by Trump’s personal lawyer Jesse Binnall and Michael Flynn’s brother Joe Flynn, alongside Sarajevo businessman Amer Bekan, who brought local lobbying ties to the venture.
By January 2026, Binnall and Flynn arrived in Sarajevo to meet with Foreign Minister Elmedin Konakovic and House of Peoples Deputy Speaker Dragan Covic alongside Ginkel. Although established transmission operators like Bosnia’s BH Gas and Croatia’s Plinacro had spent years working on the project, and industrial giant Bechtel also sent representatives to Sarajevo, no competitive tender was held. By April 2026, parliament amended the Southern Interconnection law to place AAFS at the center of the project.
Dismantling the Office of the High Representative
The pipeline project immediately collided with Bosnia’s unresolved state property dispute, with roughly one-third of the proposed route crossing land classified as state property. While Dodik demanded control over public property inside Republika Srpska, High Representative Christian Schmidt used his Bonn powers to block such transfers, insisting authority remained with the central state.
To clear this legal hurdle, Washington applied intense pressure on Schmidt, leading to his resignation in May 2026. However, European allies including France, Germany, and Britain resisted the appointment, instead backing French diplomat René Troccaz. Following deadlocked meetings of the Peace Implementation Council’s Steering Board in June and July 2026, Schmidt’s American deputy, Louis Crishock, was left in charge indefinitely while transatlantic disagreements persisted.
Unleashing Dodik Backfired on Washington
Washington’s transactional gamble quickly ran into resistance as Dodik resumed his nationalist agenda. Within weeks of receiving sanctions relief, Dodik was again advocating secession, calling Sarajevo the enemy of Republika Srpska during a February visit, and traveling to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin by May.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Southern Interconnection pipeline?
It is a planned natural gas pipeline designed to connect Croatia’s transmission system with Bosnia and Herzegovina to supply U.S. liquefied natural gas and reduce reliance on Russian energy sources.
Who owns AAFS Infrastructure and Energy?
The company is owned by Trump’s personal lawyer Jesse Binnall, Joe Flynn (brother of Michael Flynn), and Sarajevo businessman Amer Bekan, though other shareholders remain undisclosed.
Why did High Representative Christian Schmidt resign?
Schmidt resigned in May 2026 after facing intense U.S. pressure over his refusal to alter state property laws that stood in the way of the AAFS pipeline project.
Has construction on the pipeline begun?
While Bosnian lawmakers amended the pipeline law in April 2026 to favor AAFS, no final engineering or construction contracts have been publicly announced.
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