Title: Ukraine‘s Secret Missile Program: Developing Long-Range Capabilities Amidst Uncertainty
Article:
In the face of potential future challenges to Western aid, Ukraine is secretly advancing its missile industry, with one notable project being the "Trembita" rocket. The Economist reports that this project is a modern reimagining of the pulsejet engine first used in Germany’s V-1 bomb in 1944, with a crude metal tube housing the engine and a sleeker, grey rectangular body concealing the guidance system and warhead.
The base model "Trembita" can reach speeds of 400 km/h and has a range of 200 km. However, a larger, more powerful variant is under development, designed to reach Moscow. Series production is set to begin following final field tests, an impressive feat considering the typical years-long journey from blueprints to battlefield deployment.
Ukraine’s reliance on foreign military aid is uncertain, making projects like "Trembita" crucial for reviving domestic industry. Once a global leader in space and missile innovations, Ukraine’s "South Machine Building Plant" (Yuzhmash) produced four generations of strategic rockets during the Soviet era. However, post-independence attempts to revive the sector have struggled due to corruption, weak governance, Russian interference, and lack of political will.
The Ukrainian missile program is closely guarded due to constant Russian attacks on production facilities. In December 2023, a strike on the Neptune missile plant in Kyiv resulted in numerous casualties and injuries. In November 2024, Russia targeted Yuzhmash in Dnipro with its new interregional ballistic missile, "Oreshnik." In response, production has gone underground, with processes moved to secure bunkers and production spread across hundreds of discreet sites.
Funding is another challenge. The government supports any rocket that can fly, offering a 25% maximum profit margin to private producers, similar to that for drones. However, developers often risk significant personal funds to launch projects. Scaling up production—securing capital, purchasing sensitive foreign equipment, and ensuring security—is where Ukraine lags behind Russia’s state military complex.
New partnerships with Western allies, particularly Denmark and the UK, could help scale production. For the West, the potential is clear: producing a similar cruise missile in Ukraine could be 12 times cheaper than in Western Europe. A "Trembita" variant with a decoy costs just $3,000, while one with a 20-30 kg warhead is $15,000—both significantly cheaper than comparable Western models.
However, time is of the essence. A high-ranking security official estimates that Ukraine needs at least a year to produce missiles in sufficient quantities and with the range and capabilities to seriously threaten Russia. By then, much could change, depending on the policies of the next U.S. president and potential Russian demands during peace talks. But the engineers behind "Trembita" remain undeterred, stating, "If there is a ceasefire, it will only be between governments. We are partisans. Our missiles will continue to fly."
