According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence intelligence directorate head, Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, the Russian army could run out of military resources and troops by 2028, with current morale described as very low. Ivashchenko told The Times that Moscow retains economic and military resources for approximately another 16 months.
Intelligence Assessment Projects Russian Resource Depletion by 2028
Russia recruits roughly 1,000 people every day, sometimes 1,200, according to Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the intelligence directorate in Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence. However, Ivashchenko noted that daily casualty figures frequently outpace those recruitment numbers, citing recent losses of 1,410 on one day and 1,511 the next, with approximately 60 percent of those casualties resulting in deaths in action. Speaking to The Times, Ivashchenko added that troop morale remains very low because nobody wants to fight, estimating that Moscow’s remaining military and economic resources will end by 2028 after sustaining operations for another 16 months.
Pavlohrad Shopping Mall Strike and Regional Attacks
At least five people were killed and 67 others were injured when Russian drones struck a shopping mall in Pavlohrad, a city located in southeastern Ukraine. Officials reported that the daylight attack hit shops and vehicles in an area “when there were many people on the streets”. The wounded victims include three teenage boys aged 13, 14, and 15. In a separate incident, missile debris damaged an industrial facility and a residential building in the southern Russian city of Volgograd along the Volga River, according to city officials and regional governor Andrei Bocharov on Telegram. The Volgograd regional administration did not specify details regarding the industrial site, though a major Lukoil oil refinery operates in the southern portion of the city. Separately, Ukraine’s military stated via X that its forces struck a Russian oil refinery in Saratov overnight, causing fires at the site.
https://x.com/DefenceU/status/2098367336575127937
Did you know? The European Commission recently approved a 6.1 billion euro (£5.2bn) disbursement of defense funds to Ukraine from a promised 90 billion euro (£77.2bn) support loan, enabling acquisitions such as Patriot air defense missiles.
Black Sea Cargo Vessel Strikes and Diplomatic Developments
The Russian defence ministry stated that its forces hit three cargo vessels in the Black Sea near the ports of Chornomorsk and Odesa, alleging the ships transported equipment for the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian and US negotiators remain in constant contact regarding a potential settlement, though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that no trilateral peace talks will occur before the Russian elections scheduled for Sunday, 20 September. Zelensky expressed hope for progress on energy and grain talks later in September following a meeting with US President Donald Trump. US peace envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner previously traveled to Moscow and Kyiv to hold back-to-back discussions with leaders, though neither side reported breakthroughs. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney reported speaking with US President Donald Trump regarding the war in Ukraine and issues related to the Iran conflict.
Nato Foils Subsea Cable Sabotage Plot
Nato allies successfully thwarted a covert Russian operation involving subsea vessels training to disable critical deep-sea cables without leaving forensic evidence, officials told Reuters. A joint naval operation involving Britain, Norway, and the United States tracked and confronted Russian vessels deployed by Moscow’s GUGI undersea warfare directorate. The Russian vessels utilized deep-sea submersibles to simulate the deployment of destructive technology designed to disrupt submarine cables essential for global internet connectivity and financial transactions. The vessels were prevented from finishing their exercise and subsequently left the region, following earlier Arctic water discoveries by Britain and Norway regarding Russian sabotage operations.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the elections in Russia?
Elections in Russia are scheduled to be held on Sunday, 20 September, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
How much financial support has the EU approved for Ukraine?
The European Commission approved a disbursement of 6.1 billion euros (£5.2bn) to Ukraine as part of a larger 90 billion euro (£77.2bn) support loan to purchase defense supplies like Patriot air defense missiles.
What did intelligence officials estimate regarding Russian military resources?
According to Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the intelligence directorate in Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, Russia has military and economic resources to sustain operations for another 16 months, with full depletion projected by 2028.
Explore More: Stay informed on ongoing developments in Eastern Europe by subscribing to our newsletter or exploring our latest geopolitical analyses and reports.
Worth a look