Ukraine’s Ballistic Missiles to Hit Russian Targets This Fall

The Shift Toward Domestic Ballistic Missiles

Ukraine is actively developing home-grown ballistic missile systems to counter relentless Russian aerial attacks, according to statements from top government officials. Speaking to CBS News, Mykhajlo Fedorov stated that Ukraine is just three to six months away from hitting Russian targets with domestically produced ballistic missiles. President Volodymyr Zelenskyj added further context in August, noting that these ukrainskproduserte (Ukrainian-produced) weapons could be ready for deployment as early as the upcoming autumn.

Fire Point Projects FP7 and FP9

The weapons currently under development are being engineered by the Ukrainian company Fire Point, focusing on the FP7 variant and the longer-range FP9 system. According to the company's timeline, the first of these rockets is expected to launch toward Russian territory before the end of the year.

“I think it is absolutely plausible, at least for the short-range variant,” Hoffmann said, pointing out that deploying basic ballistic missile technology falls well within realistic Ukrainian production capacities. However, Hoffmann cautions that the primary challenge lies in scaling production to achieve rapid operational effectiveness, noting that ballistic missiles operate vastly differently than long-range drones or cruise missiles.

Historical Context of Ukraine’s Missile Program

Ukraine’s pursuit of native ballistic missile technology is not a recent endeavor. According to Hoffmann, the nation has maintained an active interest in missile development for a very long time. In 2014, Saudi Arabia financed a Ukrainian program aimed at developing Sapsan, a short-range ballistic missile designed with an estimated range of around 500 kilometers. However, no units from that specific program reached operational status prior to the beginning of the war.

When the war started with full force in 2022, Russian forces launched targeted attacks very effectively against Ukraine’s ballistiske missilprogram (ballistic missile program). Despite these severe setbacks and ongoing infrastructure damage, domestic engineers continued development, culminating in the current Fire Point initiatives.

Strategic Impact on the Missile Domain

Introducing homegrown ballistic missiles into the conflict is expected to substantially alter the tactical dynamics on the battlefield. Hoffmann emphasizes that supplementing Ukraine’s existing arsenal of long-range drones and cruise missiles with precision ballistic capabilities will complicate already strained Russian air defense networks.

“Russia is already struggling enormously with the long-range drones and cruise missiles that Ukraine is launching,” Hoffmann explained. He added that if domestic production scales to meaningful numbers—such as 50 missiles per month—Russian forces will struggle to source the specific radars, launchers, and interceptor missiles required to counter the threat effectively.

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