Title: Ukraine: Latest news, analysis and videos – CNN”>Russia‘s 2024 Assault on Donbass and Kharkiv Stalls; Ukraine and West Plan Countermeasures
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In 2024, the Kremlin had ambitious plans to fully seize Ukraine’s Donbass region and create a buffer zone on Kharkiv Oblast, but both aims remained elusive by the end of the year. Russia’s military began 2024 with a bang, capturing Avdiivka and launching a new offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. However, their progress slowed down significantly, leading Russia to shift its main effort to capturing Pokrovsk in the remaining months of the year.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the battlefield situation in 2024 and provided insights for the new year. Facing an unexpected Ukrainian breakthrough in Kursk, Russia redeployed its forces towards the Pokrovske direction. Russia mounted multiple mechanized assaults around Kurakhove, Ugledar, and Velyka Novoselka, incurring heavy equipment losses. Analysts anticipate that the Kremlin may temporarily divert its focus towards advancing its army to Dnipropetrovsk borders.
In 2024, Russian forces managed to occupy only four major cities – Avdiivka, Selydove, U houdenar, and Kurakhove. However, the combined pre-war population of these cities was barely over 120,000. ISW currently assesses that Russia needs to capture an additional 8,559 km2, including significant Ukrainian defensive positions and major cities along the fortress belt, to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast. At Russia’s current pace, this operation could take around two years.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian defenders also face challenges, despite successfully slowing or halting Russia’s advance in areas like Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Ukraine must bolster its military capabilities, especially its artillery, and maintain the morale of its troops. Analysts urge the Ukrainian military to prioritize drones, artillery, and long-range strikes in 2025, while also addressing infantry issues to undermine Russia’s victory theory.
