Significant changes have unfolded in Venezuela since January 3rd, when elite U.S. Troops dismantled the Chavismo leadership. Throughout this period, the most hardline opposition maintained a single message: “The Venezuelans already voted.” This affirmed what they claimed was a resounding victory for Edmundo González, backed by María Corina Machado, over Nicolás Maduro in the presidential elections of July 28, 2024.
A Shift in Strategy
That victory, far from being celebrated, forced many of its key players into exile or hiding within the country. However, that stance is beginning to shift. Two months after the U.S. Military intervention altered the balance of power in Venezuela and opened an uncertain—though apparent—process of political opening, the most hardline sector of the anti-Chavismo movement is preparing to do something it recently rejected: compete in another election, the timing, rules and referees of which remain unknown.
The clearest sign of this change came this Sunday, with María Corina Machado announcing her return to Venezuela in the coming weeks to prepare for “a recent and gigantic electoral victory.”
This shift would have been unthinkable just months ago. For over a year, the opposition strategy, led by Machado, was to maintain, both domestically and internationally, that the 2024 presidential elections had already decided Venezuela’s political future.
According to 83% of the tallied vote reports from their poll watchers, Edmundo González Urrutia received 67% of the votes, compared to Nicolás Maduro’s 30%. These printed records from each voting machine, gathered during the long election night by thousands of volunteers, became material evidence of alleged fraud. Maduro, currently detained in a New York jail, never conceded power.
The vote reports were circulated globally, presented to the Organization of American States, and secured in bank vaults in Panama. More than thirty countries—including the United States, Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, and the 27 nations of the European Union—recognized González as the elected president, though he never took office.
From Clandestinity to Campaigning
For months, operating from hiding within Venezuela, Machado made defending those results the core of the opposition strategy, repeatedly stating, “The Venezuelans already voted” to justify abstaining from subsequent local and legislative elections. Participating in those elections, she argued, would be accepting the regime’s attempt to move past the results of July 28th.
The political landscape shifted dramatically on January 3rd with the U.S. Military intervention. Since then, Venezuela’s political process appears to be following a roadmap laid out in Washington. Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined three phases—stabilization, reconstruction, and transition—and recently announced the first phase had been completed. Within this framework, new elections are seen as the culmination of the political process, rather than the starting point as many initially imagined after Maduro’s removal.
Machado was among the first opposition leaders to acknowledge the changed circumstances. While the priority was once defending the July 28th results, the current challenge is ensuring a potential political transition doesn’t occur without her and her allies. Her announcement of returning to the country is part of this new phase, following months spent operating between clandestinity and abroad to keep her organization alive.
In recent weeks, mass releases from prison have included members of Vente Venezuela and Comando Con Venezuela, the structure that organized the defense of the vote on July 28th. Local and state-level leaders who had been detained or forced into hiding are regrouping. Parties are reconvening, and political networks paralyzed by repression are being rebuilt.
Henry Alviárez, a key leader of Vente who spent nearly two years in prison, was released last month and plans to campaign across Venezuela. He stated this week, “July 28th is a reality. Edmundo González is the legitimate president of Venezuela.” He added, “But if the reality that is being imposed in these sixty days after January 3rd invites a process of understanding, what better way to do it than by allowing every citizen to express their decision with guarantees.” The opposition is not abandoning its claim of victory, but is beginning to prepare to compete again.
The date of new elections remains unknown. Machado has suggested that elections could be organized within a year if real guarantees and minimum institutional conditions are established.
Frequently Asked Questions
What prompted the shift in the opposition’s strategy?
The U.S. Military intervention on January 3rd altered the political landscape in Venezuela, leading to a process of political opening and a roadmap seemingly directed from Washington.
What is the current status of Nicolás Maduro?
Nicolás Maduro is currently detained in a jail in New York.
What obstacles remain for a fair election in Venezuela?
The main obstacles are the existing institutions—the National Electoral Council and the Supreme Court of Justice—which remain controlled by structures that previously supported Maduro and validated the disputed 2024 election results.
What will happen next in Venezuela remains to be seen.
